***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2021.-10.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 9.1 10.0 6.2 2.7 75.2 73.8 -0.3 2.8 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 6.1 5.7 5.7 1.9 68.0 67.2 0.3 2.3 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 9.1 8.7 6.4 2.3 70.9 69.8 1.4 3.5 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 4.9 5.0 3.3 2.4 73.0 72.0 -2.6 0.4 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 8.4 8.3 5.3 2.9 75.9 74.9 0.7 3.5 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 7.6 8.4 4.1 2.7 76.9 74.3 0.5 4.1 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 6.5 5.9 5.7 2.1 70.7 69.8 0.0 2.6 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 48 52 100 1.1 0.4 3.9 1.9 67.9 66.7 -2.1 -0.7 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 9.6 9.8 6.1 2.6 73.4 72.9 1.7 4.6 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 7.0 6.9 4.8 2.2 69.7 69.0 1.1 3.6 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 8.8 9.0 6.0 2.9 76.2 75.0 1.0 4.3 5.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 8.8 8.5 4.8 2.4 73.0 71.9 1.1 5.2 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 18 82 100 8.6 9.3 6.0 3.1 76.8 76.1 0.5 4.8 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 4.8 6.4 5.5 1.3 62.0 61.1 1.7 4.1 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 7.6 7.9 5.2 2.7 74.2 74.1 1.1 2.9 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 9.5 10.4 5.4 3.1 78.1 76.2 1.1 5.2 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 48 52 100 5.1 4.4 5.2 1.7 65.7 65.4 0.0 2.0 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 2.7 3.8 4.1 1.8 68.7 65.9 0.0 2.4 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 7.1 6.8 5.8 1.8 67.8 66.5 0.4 2.7 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 91 9 100 2.1 2.4 2.3 1.3 60.4 60.1 -2.5 1.7 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 9.4 9.0 6.6 2.5 72.3 71.9 0.9 4.2 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 3.4 4.7 5.4 1.4 65.1 62.9 0.2 2.6 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 6.1 6.3 5.9 1.8 67.8 65.9 1.1 2.9 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 5.4 9.4 5.7 1.8 67.8 66.0 2.3 4.6 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 7.3 8.0 5.6 2.8 78.0 75.9 0.4 3.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 7.2 7.8 4.2 2.6 75.7 74.2 2.7 4.0 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 8.9 9.9 5.9 2.7 78.2 75.4 1.2 4.5 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 8.6 8.9 4.2 2.5 73.1 72.0 1.4 2.8 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 3.2 4.3 3.5 1.7 66.3 64.9 -0.2 2.7 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 6.9 6.7 5.9 2.2 70.9 69.6 -0.2 2.5 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------