***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2021.-10.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 1.7 2.9 2.2 4.4 87.7 86.8 -3.9 -2.3 0.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 0.4 1.3 1.5 3.7 84.4 83.3 -4.9 -3.4 -0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 2.6 4.1 2.0 4.0 85.1 84.1 -2.6 -1.3 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 -1.0 0.2 -0.7 3.9 87.4 85.3 -8.9 -7.2 -3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 -0.4 0.3 0.7 4.3 87.0 86.2 -5.0 -2.9 -2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 -0.7 0.3 -1.4 4.5 92.2 89.3 -7.3 -3.4 -1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 0.7 1.8 1.8 3.9 85.6 84.9 -4.9 -3.1 -0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 -3.9 -2.6 -1.3 4.2 87.5 85.9 -9.9 -7.2 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 1.3 2.1 0.4 4.0 86.2 84.7 -4.3 -2.5 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 -0.5 0.0 -0.9 4.0 86.6 84.7 -4.8 -3.0 -1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 -0.3 0.7 0.4 4.4 89.9 87.6 -5.1 -2.7 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 -0.7 0.2 -0.1 4.5 90.0 88.4 -6.1 -4.0 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 -0.3 0.4 0.0 4.7 91.0 88.9 -6.7 -3.0 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 0.3 1.1 -0.4 3.3 79.4 77.0 -4.0 -2.7 -0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 0.1 0.7 1.3 4.2 92.1 91.0 -3.8 -3.1 -0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 0.2 1.5 0.0 4.5 90.5 88.5 -4.7 -1.9 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 0.3 1.1 1.3 3.4 80.8 80.3 -4.8 -3.6 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 -1.9 -1.4 -1.8 3.5 81.5 79.4 -7.8 -4.3 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 0.9 1.5 1.4 3.6 84.3 83.0 -4.2 -3.0 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 -4.1 -3.4 -2.8 3.6 79.5 78.9 -11.0 -8.1 -4.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 0.7 1.4 1.6 4.1 85.4 84.4 -4.5 -2.8 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 0.0 0.7 1.2 3.2 80.3 78.9 -5.1 -3.4 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 0.1 0.9 1.2 3.6 84.7 83.3 -3.9 -2.5 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 -0.2 0.5 -0.1 3.6 81.3 79.9 -4.4 -3.3 -0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 0.0 0.9 1.8 4.6 88.8 87.6 -4.1 -2.3 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 -0.6 1.0 -0.1 4.9 92.8 90.9 -6.6 -2.6 -1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 3 97 100 1.5 3.1 2.2 4.6 88.8 87.5 -3.8 -2.0 -0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 -0.9 -0.2 -0.2 3.9 88.0 86.1 -4.8 -3.5 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 -1.8 -1.2 -2.4 3.9 81.9 80.8 -7.6 -5.0 -2.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 1.0 1.9 1.9 4.0 86.1 85.1 -4.7 -3.1 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------