***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 37.8 43.5 51.7 144.3 83.3 73.9 19.3 31.6 36.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 34.0 45.3 49.9 147.4 84.7 73.1 20.6 28.5 33.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 49.5 59.7 53.3 142.1 83.9 73.4 28.0 39.2 50.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 51.2 55.1 56.8 131.6 76.6 67.9 34.6 41.6 50.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 50.5 59.2 59.9 135.3 81.8 70.2 27.9 42.2 48.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 41.0 43.2 59.4 132.2 76.5 67.5 17.6 32.0 39.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 33.8 43.3 48.8 147.1 83.6 72.6 21.3 26.5 33.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 68.1 71.2 61.4 132.9 76.4 69.0 33.2 57.2 65.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 40.8 47.5 60.6 134.1 80.6 69.8 21.9 28.5 42.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 51.2 63.4 63.4 133.0 78.8 69.5 24.2 33.0 45.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 44.8 52.0 56.0 134.7 78.7 69.7 18.1 31.4 42.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 45.0 55.1 54.0 133.2 76.8 68.0 20.0 29.3 42.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 49.4 62.6 57.9 135.4 79.7 68.8 20.2 27.9 46.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 63.9 72.1 64.7 135.6 80.4 70.8 37.3 51.4 59.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 45.8 52.0 54.9 134.6 76.3 68.8 19.1 33.6 44.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 43.9 51.8 55.2 134.0 78.2 68.7 16.6 31.1 47.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 35.8 53.0 49.0 151.0 85.6 73.2 18.1 24.4 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 49.2 57.5 69.1 131.8 78.3 69.5 21.4 32.0 45.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 39.1 43.8 51.3 145.7 83.3 73.0 27.8 35.1 40.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 46.7 53.1 79.3 132.3 78.6 69.9 22.1 31.3 45.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 45.5 57.5 56.9 140.1 83.1 72.8 27.0 33.9 46.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 41.1 54.4 52.1 148.8 84.0 73.3 19.3 31.1 34.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 40.0 46.9 54.4 142.5 81.8 72.5 20.9 31.2 41.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 50.7 57.0 63.0 135.2 79.6 70.9 31.1 40.2 51.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 50.0 57.6 60.1 142.3 83.2 74.2 29.1 36.4 44.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 35.6 44.3 56.1 136.1 78.1 68.4 15.1 22.4 35.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 40.5 45.5 55.8 142.0 82.8 73.3 24.8 33.5 37.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 40.8 47.8 54.4 129.8 74.5 66.5 15.7 24.6 43.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 78.6 91.3 73.0 131.3 76.2 69.6 39.4 50.7 63.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 39.1 45.3 50.1 145.4 83.8 73.2 22.4 31.8 39.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------