***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.1 10.4 6.2 81.2 55.8 43.6 1.2 6.2 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.1 9.4 6.8 91.6 58.5 45.9 1.0 6.7 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.7 9.8 6.5 79.1 54.0 43.0 2.9 7.0 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 3.9 7.2 6.0 69.4 46.4 39.8 3.9 9.5 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.4 9.9 6.9 76.6 50.4 42.2 4.7 9.9 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.0 8.5 8.0 85.0 52.7 43.9 3.6 7.2 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.0 6.7 6.6 91.5 56.8 46.3 1.5 5.8 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.6 11.4 7.7 80.9 51.1 43.2 6.4 11.0 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.1 6.3 7.5 78.3 51.1 42.6 2.2 6.0 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.1 10.0 8.2 81.1 52.2 43.2 4.0 9.5 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.1 9.0 6.6 79.5 51.7 42.9 3.4 8.4 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.2 4.1 6.6 81.1 53.0 43.3 2.0 3.3 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.8 7.6 7.5 86.4 55.2 44.2 3.9 5.8 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.8 10.7 9.4 87.6 56.1 46.1 4.1 9.5 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.6 2.7 5.0 62.6 49.0 37.6 0.6 3.6 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.1 7.7 6.5 80.4 54.5 42.9 2.2 6.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.7 7.5 6.8 95.4 60.2 45.8 0.9 5.7 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.4 8.2 9.6 84.0 53.5 43.9 4.1 6.9 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.1 10.1 7.0 89.6 58.7 45.8 1.5 9.1 10.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.0 5.7 10.6 83.7 52.0 43.6 2.8 5.4 10.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 3.7 7.0 6.6 75.7 51.6 41.7 3.9 6.8 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.1 7.8 7.2 94.2 60.2 46.5 0.4 6.5 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.0 8.9 7.4 87.1 57.3 45.9 1.2 6.2 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.8 14.5 8.5 81.8 54.5 43.7 5.6 12.3 18.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 5.0 11.2 7.0 79.3 53.7 42.7 2.5 10.2 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.3 8.3 7.4 88.4 55.8 45.0 4.2 7.3 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 4.6 10.6 7.1 85.2 56.8 44.5 2.2 9.6 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 1.3 3.3 5.5 67.3 47.9 39.0 0.9 3.4 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.2 12.7 10.5 85.9 53.5 44.3 6.8 12.1 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.6 7.0 6.7 88.5 56.5 45.4 1.3 5.3 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------