***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-24.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.4 7.7 11.3 124.0 70.2 53.9 2.9 4.7 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.8 9.6 111.2 63.1 49.2 1.2 4.2 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.9 12.8 11.9 124.7 70.0 53.3 3.8 5.8 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.5 13.9 13.2 113.2 70.1 53.0 5.4 10.1 12.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.9 15.9 14.0 114.8 69.6 53.9 1.7 5.5 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.8 8.1 14.2 108.0 64.8 53.1 3.0 5.7 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.1 5.6 9.3 109.4 64.1 49.5 2.0 4.2 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 17.7 18.2 15.8 119.8 73.3 56.6 5.6 12.5 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.7 13.2 14.9 120.0 71.5 54.5 2.6 5.3 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.0 12.2 16.1 119.9 72.5 56.0 3.5 7.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.3 11.2 13.3 112.0 70.3 53.8 3.9 7.3 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.2 13.9 13.7 116.9 72.0 55.9 1.9 8.8 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.2 11.1 13.9 112.6 70.7 55.0 4.7 7.3 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.0 15.6 15.0 122.9 69.5 54.7 7.8 9.7 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.6 10.9 12.3 112.8 69.6 50.1 4.9 8.6 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.3 9.4 12.8 108.2 69.3 53.4 2.8 6.0 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.2 6.6 9.2 111.2 63.7 49.7 1.2 4.1 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.7 11.5 17.7 123.3 73.0 57.3 5.2 7.3 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.7 9.4 10.1 114.4 62.9 49.6 3.0 6.2 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 12.4 12.9 19.9 121.4 73.4 57.4 4.7 8.7 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.9 12.6 13.6 128.0 71.4 55.3 3.3 7.3 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.5 9.8 112.8 63.1 50.0 1.7 4.8 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.8 9.3 11.6 121.5 65.6 51.6 2.7 6.2 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 4.1 17.4 15.4 125.4 72.3 56.0 4.0 8.5 14.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 2.6 12.0 13.2 118.9 67.6 54.3 3.3 5.7 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.9 14.0 116.2 67.5 54.3 1.3 3.0 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 2.2 7.6 12.0 117.9 67.0 53.8 3.0 4.3 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.4 8.1 12.6 109.9 69.2 51.6 3.8 5.2 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 22.5 27.3 18.6 123.0 73.0 57.6 8.9 12.5 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.1 7.9 9.9 113.5 64.8 49.6 1.5 3.9 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------