***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 2.3 3.1 13.3 136.1 72.3 59.6 0.1 1.2 1.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 3.3 8.1 12.5 141.6 74.4 59.1 0.3 1.4 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 5.8 6.5 13.7 133.8 73.3 59.3 0.7 1.5 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 4.6 5.3 13.5 119.6 69.0 57.1 2.6 4.0 4.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 7.1 7.8 15.3 131.1 72.9 61.7 1.4 3.1 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 7.2 7.6 15.4 129.0 71.9 60.9 0.5 1.7 4.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.3 7.9 12.3 146.5 73.9 59.5 0.3 1.1 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 11.6 15.2 15.7 127.8 75.0 61.6 1.6 3.5 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 5.1 5.6 16.0 130.9 72.4 60.9 0.7 2.5 4.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 8.4 9.2 16.6 130.1 74.7 61.7 0.5 3.8 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 7.5 8.9 14.2 129.1 75.1 61.4 0.4 2.3 5.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 6.5 8.7 13.7 126.8 74.4 61.3 0.5 2.0 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 6.6 7.4 14.9 136.4 73.8 63.4 0.9 2.1 5.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.6 12.9 17.0 126.0 71.9 58.3 1.3 4.3 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 3.0 6.3 12.6 114.8 65.8 56.5 0.5 1.5 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 8.2 6.2 13.9 128.0 72.7 61.3 0.8 1.6 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 2.8 7.3 11.7 145.8 74.1 59.9 0.4 1.5 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 10.4 6.7 18.2 127.5 72.0 60.9 1.8 3.5 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 3.8 9.8 13.0 136.2 73.9 58.4 0.3 1.4 3.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.0 8.7 20.1 127.0 72.2 61.0 1.4 3.6 6.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 5.5 6.5 14.7 133.4 72.5 60.5 1.1 3.0 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 0.6 5.5 12.4 136.9 72.2 58.2 0.1 1.4 3.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 2.7 8.3 14.0 130.3 73.5 57.8 0.3 0.9 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 8.1 8.2 16.5 126.8 72.4 59.2 1.4 3.9 7.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 5.6 7.1 15.0 135.6 71.7 60.9 0.5 1.8 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 5.0 6.0 14.4 138.0 71.9 63.8 0.6 1.2 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 2.6 4.9 14.3 136.5 71.4 59.8 0.3 1.8 2.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 3.4 4.3 13.0 114.8 68.0 56.8 1.1 2.3 3.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.3 15.1 19.1 126.0 71.9 60.0 2.8 6.7 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 7.4 7.3 12.8 139.6 73.8 59.1 0.3 1.2 2.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------