***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 8.4 15.3 21.0 224.4 91.3 86.9 1.6 4.8 6.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 11.3 19.6 21.0 234.2 90.9 86.1 2.3 3.8 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 13.9 33.1 21.2 222.9 91.8 86.9 5.5 8.6 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 16.2 20.9 24.1 208.0 89.1 83.6 3.8 8.2 10.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 16.8 23.6 23.7 207.4 90.4 83.5 3.9 7.1 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 10.6 17.3 21.8 208.7 89.5 81.8 2.1 6.0 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 9.9 17.2 20.6 228.1 89.8 84.4 2.9 3.7 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 23.7 28.1 22.2 198.6 88.1 82.4 5.6 10.3 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 15.2 21.9 22.2 201.8 87.5 83.3 2.0 7.3 10.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 17.9 24.8 22.6 197.1 87.0 82.7 1.8 6.3 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 13.5 25.6 21.9 210.6 89.9 83.7 1.5 5.9 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 12.3 31.3 20.1 201.8 89.4 82.6 1.7 4.4 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 15.8 26.4 21.5 200.8 88.9 82.4 3.6 6.1 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 19.0 29.0 23.4 205.6 88.1 83.9 9.1 11.4 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 15.6 24.0 24.9 230.2 88.1 84.9 1.1 4.6 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 11.5 23.1 22.0 210.7 89.5 83.5 1.9 6.9 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 10.6 17.1 21.4 235.6 91.3 84.6 1.8 4.1 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 13.6 19.5 23.6 190.8 87.2 82.0 2.3 6.3 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 14.8 18.1 21.2 234.6 91.5 86.9 4.5 7.3 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 13.0 26.1 28.8 191.3 88.7 82.1 2.7 7.1 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 12.0 27.3 22.0 214.3 89.5 85.0 3.7 7.8 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 11.2 20.2 22.6 236.4 91.4 86.0 2.6 5.2 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 12.5 23.3 21.5 227.1 92.6 86.4 3.5 7.9 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 16.1 20.4 22.7 206.1 88.9 84.5 5.4 10.1 13.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 11.3 30.7 24.8 222.2 93.2 86.7 5.4 8.0 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 12.9 16.2 20.4 195.4 86.2 81.6 1.7 5.2 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 11.9 25.7 22.4 217.2 91.9 86.1 2.4 5.8 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 15.9 18.9 23.3 213.9 88.1 83.3 0.4 3.8 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 22.7 31.1 24.8 189.1 87.7 81.7 5.3 7.9 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 11.5 21.2 20.7 230.3 91.0 86.3 3.0 4.2 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------