***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 3.7 4.5 3.8 0.9 63.2 60.0 2.3 3.3 4.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 3.6 4.3 3.9 1.1 64.9 60.5 1.6 3.2 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 4.9 5.1 4.1 0.9 62.6 60.5 2.7 4.3 5.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 0.5 0.5 1.3 0.5 59.6 55.7 -0.7 0.0 1.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 4.6 4.9 2.3 0.7 62.5 58.1 3.2 4.1 4.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 4.2 4.7 2.0 1.1 66.7 62.1 2.9 3.9 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 3.1 3.9 3.8 1.1 64.8 61.1 1.3 2.6 4.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -0.1 0.8 2.4 0.9 65.5 61.5 -1.6 -0.4 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 5.2 5.2 3.2 0.7 62.3 58.6 3.9 4.6 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 4.6 4.5 2.9 0.9 64.3 60.5 3.6 4.1 4.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 4.6 4.9 2.4 0.7 63.0 58.7 3.5 4.2 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 5.0 5.3 2.6 0.9 64.6 60.8 3.6 4.6 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 4.5 4.7 2.4 1.0 65.0 60.9 3.4 4.1 4.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 5.5 5.6 4.0 1.0 64.4 62.1 3.1 5.0 5.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 4.1 4.7 1.5 0.3 55.5 53.5 2.1 3.7 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 5.1 5.1 2.1 0.8 63.1 59.1 3.7 4.6 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 3.1 3.9 3.7 1.1 64.3 61.4 1.4 2.7 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 65.8 61.8 2.2 2.7 3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 4.1 4.7 4.0 1.1 64.4 60.7 1.7 3.6 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 1.9 2.7 1.7 1.1 67.3 62.5 0.3 1.5 2.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 4.9 4.9 3.6 0.8 60.8 59.0 3.6 4.3 5.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 3.9 4.9 4.0 1.1 65.1 61.7 2.0 3.4 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 3.7 4.0 4.2 1.0 62.9 61.5 1.8 3.3 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 5.5 5.5 3.9 1.0 64.2 61.7 3.4 4.8 5.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 3.5 4.0 2.4 0.7 61.5 59.2 2.5 3.1 4.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 5.2 5.0 2.3 1.1 69.3 63.4 2.8 4.5 4.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 4.3 4.6 3.3 0.9 63.2 60.6 2.9 3.8 4.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 4.9 5.6 1.5 0.5 58.0 54.9 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 2.1 2.9 2.5 1.0 66.1 62.0 1.4 1.6 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 3.6 4.0 3.9 1.0 62.9 60.5 1.6 3.2 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------