***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-24.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 3.6 5.6 4.0 1.2 62.8 59.2 1.2 2.8 5.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 2.6 5.4 4.1 1.6 68.5 61.7 0.9 1.5 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 4.3 5.1 4.1 1.2 62.5 58.6 2.1 3.4 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 -0.3 0.1 1.5 0.9 56.1 56.3 -3.0 -1.4 1.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 4.1 5.2 2.1 0.8 55.6 55.2 2.6 3.2 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.3 4.2 1.3 0.5 55.3 53.6 2.7 3.8 4.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 4.3 4.8 4.0 1.6 68.2 61.6 0.6 1.3 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -2.6 -0.1 1.7 0.5 53.5 53.2 -2.1 -0.5 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.2 6.0 2.9 0.7 55.1 54.7 2.7 4.4 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 4.5 4.2 2.3 0.5 53.8 53.4 2.2 3.7 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 4.4 4.6 2.0 0.6 53.7 54.1 3.0 3.7 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.5 4.9 2.0 0.6 55.6 54.1 3.0 4.8 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.8 1.6 0.6 56.5 53.7 2.9 4.4 5.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.2 3.6 0.9 55.5 55.7 2.6 3.3 5.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 0.8 4.1 1.7 1.0 59.8 57.2 0.6 2.9 4.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.5 1.7 0.6 54.6 54.1 3.7 4.7 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 4.2 4.8 4.1 1.6 68.1 62.1 0.7 1.6 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.2 2.9 2.2 0.5 53.4 52.9 1.4 2.8 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 3.3 5.2 4.2 1.5 67.3 61.0 0.9 2.3 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.3 51.8 51.8 0.4 1.1 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 4.2 5.5 3.5 0.9 59.6 56.4 2.7 3.5 6.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 3.3 4.5 4.2 1.5 66.1 61.3 1.3 2.2 4.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 3.1 3.9 4.3 1.3 64.3 59.3 1.1 2.1 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.6 3.4 0.7 55.1 55.0 2.5 4.1 6.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 3.1 4.2 2.3 1.0 59.5 57.0 1.1 2.5 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.3 4.4 1.6 0.7 59.9 54.8 3.2 4.0 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.3 5.5 3.2 1.1 61.5 58.1 1.2 3.6 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 0.9 3.7 1.7 0.9 55.9 56.2 1.4 3.0 5.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.3 3.3 1.6 0.4 52.4 52.5 0.3 2.7 4.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 2.5 5.3 4.1 1.5 67.4 61.0 0.6 1.5 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------