***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.0 4.4 4.2 1.7 60.5 62.6 1.9 3.3 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 3.8 4.4 4.2 2.0 62.8 63.4 1.0 3.0 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 4.6 5.2 4.4 1.9 63.1 63.0 1.9 3.8 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 0.2 0.5 1.7 1.1 55.5 58.4 -2.1 -0.4 1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 3.9 4.5 2.6 1.4 59.9 60.5 2.1 3.2 5.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 4.6 6.0 2.3 1.7 70.1 63.6 2.3 4.1 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 3.1 4.0 4.1 2.0 63.0 63.6 0.8 2.4 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 0.7 1.5 2.7 1.6 66.9 62.3 -1.9 0.2 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 4.8 5.6 3.5 1.6 63.4 61.6 2.5 3.9 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 4.5 5.5 3.2 1.7 67.0 62.3 1.8 3.8 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 4.8 5.5 2.7 1.5 65.4 62.0 2.0 4.1 5.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 4.8 6.4 2.9 1.6 68.3 63.0 3.3 4.1 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 5.8 6.5 2.6 1.7 69.4 63.6 2.2 4.0 5.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 7.0 6.7 4.3 2.1 69.6 65.3 2.5 4.0 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 4.4 4.2 1.7 0.9 53.4 55.4 2.0 4.0 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 6.5 6.2 2.4 1.6 66.3 62.6 2.8 4.4 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 2.9 4.0 4.0 2.0 62.0 63.2 0.6 2.1 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 2.3 3.6 3.4 1.8 68.4 63.8 0.4 1.7 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.0 4.5 4.4 2.0 63.2 63.6 0.9 3.3 5.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 1.1 1.8 1.9 1.6 64.7 61.5 -0.1 0.5 1.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 4.4 5.4 3.9 1.6 62.5 61.6 1.9 3.7 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 5.0 5.2 4.2 2.0 65.0 63.8 0.7 2.7 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 5.3 5.2 4.6 2.0 65.4 64.0 1.1 2.6 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 5.6 7.3 4.2 1.9 68.7 64.2 2.7 4.8 6.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 3.6 3.8 2.6 1.3 58.3 60.4 1.7 3.2 4.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 5.7 5.9 2.5 1.7 69.5 64.5 2.2 3.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 4.3 4.5 3.5 1.6 60.4 62.3 2.3 3.6 4.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 4.7 4.8 1.9 1.1 56.4 57.9 2.7 4.2 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 2.9 4.2 2.9 1.8 66.6 63.2 -0.3 2.4 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 3.7 4.0 4.3 2.0 62.6 63.5 0.8 2.9 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------