***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 3.9 1.8 2.5 -0.8 39.9 41.4 -0.3 2.8 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 3.6 0.7 2.2 -1.1 39.5 39.2 0.3 2.3 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 4.5 3.2 2.9 -0.7 42.0 42.8 1.4 3.5 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 1.6 -1.0 -0.6 -1.5 36.9 38.1 -2.6 0.4 2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 4.3 3.4 1.4 -0.7 46.1 44.3 0.7 3.5 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 4.6 5.2 2.3 0.9 59.5 57.1 0.5 4.1 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 3.6 0.3 2.0 -1.0 39.9 39.5 0.0 2.6 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 -0.4 -0.3 2.7 0.7 55.3 55.8 -2.1 -0.7 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 5.4 4.5 2.4 -0.6 47.2 44.6 1.7 4.6 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 4.2 3.7 2.8 0.2 51.2 51.5 1.1 3.6 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 5.0 4.1 2.0 -0.3 48.7 47.9 1.0 4.3 5.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 5.6 5.7 2.7 0.5 53.5 54.0 1.1 5.2 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 5.3 5.4 3.3 0.8 59.6 57.6 0.5 4.8 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 4.8 3.9 3.5 -0.2 46.9 46.0 1.7 4.1 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.0 1.2 0.0 -2.1 34.0 34.8 1.1 2.9 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 5.9 5.2 1.9 -0.1 50.4 49.8 1.1 5.2 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 3.1 0.3 1.9 -1.1 39.0 39.6 0.0 2.0 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 2.6 2.6 3.3 0.7 54.4 54.8 0.0 2.4 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.2 1.5 2.4 -1.0 40.3 40.0 0.4 2.7 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 2.1 3.0 2.7 1.5 63.7 62.2 -2.5 1.7 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 5.0 3.6 2.6 -0.8 43.5 42.7 0.9 4.2 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 3.7 0.8 2.3 -0.9 39.5 40.6 0.2 2.6 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 3.7 2.0 2.9 -0.7 42.8 42.2 1.1 2.9 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 5.4 4.5 3.7 0.1 48.8 48.9 2.3 4.6 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 4.0 2.1 1.6 -0.8 42.7 43.0 0.4 3.2 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 4.5 4.8 3.1 1.3 62.5 61.1 2.7 4.0 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 5.2 3.6 2.4 -0.6 42.9 43.4 1.2 4.5 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 4.4 1.6 -0.1 -1.6 36.9 38.0 1.4 2.8 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 91 9 100 3.1 3.8 3.1 1.1 59.2 58.0 -0.2 2.7 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 3.7 0.9 2.3 -1.0 39.4 39.8 -0.2 2.5 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------