***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-31.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 -2.3 -2.3 -1.9 1.0 58.7 58.9 -3.4 -2.6 -1.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 -2.3 -2.4 -1.9 1.2 63.0 60.8 -3.9 -3.3 -2.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 -0.8 -1.0 -2.1 1.0 59.6 59.5 -2.0 -1.1 -0.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 -5.5 -5.6 -5.5 0.8 56.5 56.1 -6.8 -5.7 -5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 -2.9 -3.0 -5.0 1.0 58.7 57.9 -4.1 -3.2 -2.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 -4.1 -3.5 -6.2 1.3 66.1 61.9 -5.1 -4.4 -3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 -2.1 -2.0 -1.8 1.3 64.5 61.3 -3.7 -3.2 -2.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 -6.9 -6.4 -5.4 1.5 65.0 62.8 -8.7 -7.1 -6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 -2.2 -2.2 -4.1 0.9 60.4 57.6 -3.5 -2.6 -1.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 -2.5 -2.5 -4.8 1.3 64.7 61.5 -3.9 -2.7 -2.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 -2.8 -2.7 -5.4 1.0 61.1 58.0 -4.2 -3.0 -2.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 -3.7 -3.3 -5.1 1.3 63.2 61.0 -5.0 -3.9 -3.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 -3.2 -2.8 -5.3 1.5 68.0 62.6 -4.5 -3.5 -3.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 -1.4 -1.8 -3.4 1.5 66.2 64.8 -3.1 -2.5 -1.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 -2.7 -2.9 -4.8 0.5 51.3 53.2 -4.8 -3.1 -1.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 -2.3 -1.9 -5.8 1.1 62.6 58.8 -3.6 -2.6 -1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 -2.5 -2.5 -1.7 1.3 64.6 61.9 -4.0 -3.3 -2.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 -4.0 -4.0 -4.9 1.6 66.4 64.5 -6.1 -4.8 -4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 -2.6 -2.4 -2.0 1.1 61.9 60.5 -3.9 -3.0 -1.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 43 57 100 -7.1 -6.6 -6.1 1.8 67.0 66.9 -9.9 -8.5 -6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 -2.4 -2.5 -2.9 0.9 60.5 57.4 -3.7 -2.7 -2.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 -2.5 -2.4 -1.7 1.3 64.0 62.0 -4.0 -3.3 -2.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 -2.7 -2.3 -2.3 1.1 62.8 61.4 -4.2 -3.1 -2.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 -2.8 -2.4 -3.7 1.3 64.5 62.4 -4.0 -3.1 -2.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 -2.6 -2.3 -3.6 1.1 60.5 60.1 -3.6 -2.8 -2.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 -3.1 -2.3 -4.9 1.6 66.6 64.0 -4.7 -3.4 -2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 -2.6 -1.8 -2.6 1.2 61.2 60.6 -3.8 -2.9 -1.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 -4.1 -4.5 -5.5 0.6 52.2 53.5 -5.2 -4.7 -2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 -4.3 -4.6 -5.5 1.6 67.2 65.3 -6.0 -5.3 -4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 -2.6 -2.2 -1.8 1.1 61.9 60.1 -3.5 -2.9 -1.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------