***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-24.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 -0.9 -1.2 -1.6 1.6 66.9 61.5 -3.5 -2.3 -1.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 -1.7 -1.8 -1.6 1.8 68.5 62.8 -3.9 -3.0 -1.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 0.4 -0.4 -1.9 1.7 65.4 63.1 -2.7 -1.3 -0.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 -5.1 -5.1 -5.2 1.8 62.3 62.1 -8.7 -5.7 -5.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 -2.4 -2.4 -5.0 1.7 60.9 60.6 -4.1 -2.8 -2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 -3.1 -3.2 -6.6 1.5 61.0 59.4 -5.0 -3.6 -2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 -1.7 -1.2 -1.5 1.8 69.0 62.7 -4.2 -3.4 -1.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -6.4 -6.1 -6.2 1.3 60.4 58.0 -9.1 -6.9 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 -0.9 -1.2 -4.0 1.6 60.7 60.0 -3.3 -2.6 -1.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 -2.1 -2.3 -5.3 1.5 61.7 58.7 -3.8 -2.6 -1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 -2.6 -2.2 -5.5 1.6 59.1 59.8 -4.0 -3.1 -1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 -3.2 -2.6 -5.5 1.6 60.1 59.7 -4.4 -3.6 -2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 -2.8 -2.0 -5.8 1.6 61.8 59.7 -4.2 -3.4 -1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 -0.8 -0.9 -3.5 2.0 67.9 63.3 -3.3 -2.0 -1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 -2.1 -2.2 -4.3 1.8 59.2 62.0 -4.2 -2.5 -1.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 -1.8 -1.7 -5.9 1.7 60.5 60.0 -3.6 -2.2 -1.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 -1.9 -1.7 -1.4 1.8 68.3 62.9 -5.0 -3.1 -2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 -3.8 -3.2 -5.6 1.6 63.6 58.8 -5.4 -4.4 -3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 -1.7 -1.5 -1.7 1.8 67.5 63.3 -4.5 -3.2 -1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -9.0 -6.4 -7.5 1.0 57.4 54.9 -9.3 -7.2 -5.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 -0.9 -2.2 -2.7 1.6 61.6 61.4 -3.9 -2.6 -1.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 -2.9 -2.1 -1.5 1.7 67.1 62.7 -4.2 -3.4 -2.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 -1.5 -1.2 -2.1 1.8 67.8 64.3 -4.4 -2.8 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 -1.7 -2.2 -3.8 1.8 64.6 62.2 -4.4 -3.1 -2.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 -1.3 -1.6 -3.7 1.8 65.8 62.0 -3.2 -2.6 -1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 -2.9 -2.6 -5.5 1.7 59.8 60.8 -4.6 -3.5 -1.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 -1.2 -1.4 -2.6 1.7 65.8 61.4 -3.2 -2.8 -1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 -2.7 -2.6 -5.1 1.7 59.9 61.5 -5.6 -3.3 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -6.3 -3.8 -6.3 1.4 62.4 57.7 -5.8 -4.4 -3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 -1.3 -1.0 -1.5 1.8 67.6 62.6 -4.0 -2.8 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------