***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 -1.6 -3.3 -2.4 -0.1 38.2 42.9 -3.9 -2.3 0.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 -2.6 -4.6 -2.7 -0.3 38.2 42.5 -4.9 -3.4 -0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 -0.6 -2.6 -2.7 -0.3 36.8 42.2 -2.6 -1.3 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 -6.2 -7.9 -6.1 -0.9 36.8 38.0 -8.9 -7.2 -3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 -2.6 -4.3 -4.9 -0.3 38.7 42.4 -5.0 -2.9 -2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 -3.0 -3.2 -5.2 1.2 55.3 56.6 -7.3 -3.4 -1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 -2.3 -3.8 -2.7 -0.1 38.5 43.2 -4.9 -3.1 -0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 -6.7 -6.2 -4.1 1.7 60.3 59.9 -9.9 -7.2 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 -1.8 -4.2 -4.5 -0.6 37.4 40.4 -4.3 -2.5 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 -2.6 -2.7 -4.1 0.9 51.9 53.6 -4.8 -3.0 -1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 -2.4 -4.5 -5.0 -0.1 41.8 45.1 -5.1 -2.7 -1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 -3.6 -3.8 -4.2 1.0 52.4 53.4 -6.1 -4.0 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 -1.4 -1.4 -3.8 1.7 63.2 60.3 -6.7 -3.0 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 -2.2 -2.8 -3.2 0.4 48.9 49.6 -4.0 -2.7 -0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 -5.6 -3.8 -5.3 -1.5 34.0 33.9 -3.8 -3.1 -0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 -1.6 -2.6 -5.3 0.3 46.0 47.9 -4.7 -1.9 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 -2.7 -4.4 -2.9 -0.2 38.7 42.6 -4.8 -3.6 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 1.6 58.8 58.8 -7.8 -4.3 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 -2.2 -4.0 -2.8 -0.4 38.0 41.6 -4.2 -3.0 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 -4.7 -4.2 -3.5 3.3 72.0 72.1 -11.0 -8.1 -4.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 -2.2 -4.2 -3.4 -0.7 36.8 38.9 -4.5 -2.8 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 -2.6 -4.4 -2.7 -0.4 39.7 42.4 -5.1 -3.4 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 -1.9 -3.4 -3.0 -0.4 37.9 41.6 -3.9 -2.5 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 -2.7 -3.5 -3.4 0.4 47.4 48.8 -4.4 -3.3 -0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 -2.0 -3.9 -3.4 0.0 40.7 43.6 -4.1 -2.3 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 -1.2 -1.1 -3.1 2.3 69.1 67.1 -6.6 -2.6 -1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 -1.4 -3.3 -2.6 0.3 41.2 46.2 -3.8 -2.0 -0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 -2.8 -4.6 -6.2 -1.4 34.9 35.9 -4.8 -3.5 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 -4.3 -2.2 -4.1 2.2 64.4 63.3 -7.6 -5.0 -2.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 -2.3 -3.6 -2.6 -0.2 37.5 42.4 -4.7 -3.1 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------