***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-29.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 32.4 31.9 47.6 106.1 61.0 51.1 19.5 30.0 33.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 30.7 32.0 43.9 112.0 62.2 55.0 19.3 28.0 33.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 42.7 44.2 47.3 106.7 59.2 52.9 28.2 39.2 47.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 26.4 37.0 47.4 93.8 47.9 46.1 28.5 37.2 53.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 42.2 37.6 47.8 93.2 47.4 45.9 24.6 38.0 49.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 33.0 32.0 47.1 101.6 52.3 52.4 14.9 30.2 39.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 15.3 33.8 43.5 113.3 63.9 55.1 19.3 25.0 34.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 54.2 45.5 49.4 94.7 48.1 47.5 31.7 49.0 66.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 31.6 27.1 48.7 94.7 48.1 47.5 21.3 27.5 42.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 38.7 31.3 50.0 92.9 45.9 46.2 23.1 32.2 46.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 36.2 26.1 46.4 93.0 45.9 45.8 21.7 31.5 41.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 36.9 31.3 46.4 97.5 49.1 49.4 15.8 31.8 43.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 35.5 25.6 50.7 97.4 47.5 48.7 19.2 27.5 43.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 55.3 54.3 59.1 109.3 62.1 56.5 41.0 51.5 57.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 21.0 37.5 46.7 100.4 52.7 50.3 24.1 33.5 42.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 34.3 28.8 47.1 95.4 45.6 47.6 15.2 29.6 46.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 16.7 27.7 41.9 110.3 61.3 54.4 18.3 26.5 31.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 33.3 27.9 53.2 95.6 48.6 48.5 19.5 28.0 44.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 33.6 36.7 45.3 111.8 61.6 55.3 27.8 31.4 39.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 41.6 35.5 64.0 96.6 51.5 48.6 19.6 34.9 44.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 36.4 34.1 48.8 99.4 53.3 49.6 25.5 32.3 39.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 19.6 32.5 44.7 110.7 60.5 55.1 18.5 29.3 33.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 34.5 36.6 48.7 111.7 61.9 56.2 20.6 31.1 39.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 42.9 42.8 52.8 102.7 55.6 53.1 32.3 40.1 47.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 37.7 32.3 52.3 100.5 53.0 48.3 23.5 31.1 39.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 17.2 26.0 46.3 98.5 49.4 49.5 13.0 26.1 39.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 21.2 38.8 50.0 105.1 57.9 50.2 18.8 32.0 40.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 17.0 27.6 45.0 96.3 49.4 48.2 20.6 27.6 40.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 59.8 51.4 57.4 97.2 50.3 49.2 33.7 51.4 77.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 33.6 33.8 44.8 111.2 61.6 54.3 21.2 30.4 39.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------