***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-29.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 11.2 9.9 9.1 87.3 56.0 45.3 4.2 9.3 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.3 9.7 8.8 96.5 60.4 48.9 2.3 6.3 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.6 9.2 89.6 56.1 46.9 3.9 7.4 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.0 8.5 8.6 74.0 52.5 44.8 2.6 8.5 13.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.6 7.9 8.6 70.8 48.1 42.8 4.2 8.1 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.7 7.7 8.9 75.3 49.7 44.8 4.4 7.8 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.4 8.0 8.8 99.8 61.4 49.7 1.3 5.6 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.4 10.8 9.4 74.1 47.6 44.3 5.0 11.3 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.9 5.9 9.3 73.1 47.9 42.8 1.8 6.3 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.0 5.9 9.8 74.2 47.5 43.5 2.5 6.8 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.6 5.3 8.5 71.5 47.5 43.4 2.1 5.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.9 3.2 8.5 73.3 48.4 44.4 2.0 3.9 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.1 9.4 9.6 76.0 49.6 44.3 4.5 9.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.0 11.6 91.9 56.8 48.1 2.5 11.9 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.4 6.6 9.7 87.8 60.5 51.2 1.0 3.4 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.3 6.0 8.6 71.9 49.0 43.5 3.5 6.1 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.7 8.5 8.5 100.0 62.3 50.5 0.7 5.7 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.7 5.2 10.6 78.0 48.0 44.4 2.6 6.2 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.1 10.4 9.2 97.0 60.9 49.2 2.1 9.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.7 5.9 12.9 79.8 49.8 45.1 3.3 5.9 16.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.9 6.1 9.3 79.4 51.0 44.4 3.1 5.9 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.1 10.6 9.1 97.2 62.0 50.0 0.9 7.6 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.5 10.0 98.6 60.6 49.8 1.0 7.1 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.9 8.6 10.2 83.9 52.1 46.0 2.8 7.7 17.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.5 10.6 9.6 80.5 52.0 44.0 4.1 9.4 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.6 7.9 9.2 78.4 50.2 46.0 3.2 7.8 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.1 6.7 9.5 86.0 53.5 45.0 3.2 5.9 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 5.6 5.0 8.4 76.0 53.9 46.7 1.0 4.4 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.4 10.9 11.5 80.0 48.1 44.2 3.7 12.4 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.5 11.0 8.9 94.5 58.5 48.0 2.2 7.0 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------