***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 2.0 4.8 11.8 110.6 63.0 51.5 0.5 4.0 5.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.1 5.0 10.4 114.5 66.0 53.5 0.3 2.3 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.0 8.8 11.6 113.1 62.3 53.6 0.9 5.3 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.9 12.1 12.9 114.3 65.9 55.2 5.6 8.9 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.5 6.2 11.8 101.3 58.7 52.8 1.4 5.3 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.0 8.0 11.6 113.3 64.9 55.1 1.0 4.3 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 1.0 4.4 10.5 115.4 66.4 52.6 0.5 2.1 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.8 11.7 96.8 59.0 52.0 4.9 10.3 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.2 8.0 12.3 99.8 58.2 51.9 1.1 4.8 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.7 8.3 12.0 96.8 57.9 51.7 1.3 4.7 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.7 11.1 99.3 57.6 52.8 2.3 5.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.1 7.2 10.8 99.8 58.5 52.5 1.8 4.9 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.1 7.5 11.7 105.3 59.0 53.4 2.5 6.1 7.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.4 12.5 100.9 58.4 51.5 2.9 6.3 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 9.6 10.2 14.4 137.1 73.7 58.2 2.1 4.3 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.9 5.8 11.3 104.1 58.8 53.6 1.3 3.6 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.1 4.6 10.2 114.1 64.7 53.3 0.8 1.6 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.5 7.1 12.2 94.3 57.6 49.7 2.3 5.3 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 1.7 6.3 10.4 112.7 65.2 53.7 0.5 3.5 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 2.6 6.5 15.8 96.4 60.9 50.7 3.2 4.6 6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.5 8.8 12.4 108.5 60.3 53.2 1.9 4.1 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.8 6.7 10.4 110.8 64.8 53.0 0.5 2.8 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.1 7.0 10.8 108.5 62.2 53.2 0.4 4.4 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.3 9.0 12.1 102.4 60.0 51.5 1.9 5.5 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.0 5.8 12.7 105.3 60.1 50.3 0.8 4.2 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.4 5.0 11.1 107.5 63.7 52.7 1.1 2.8 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.6 5.2 12.1 105.7 59.8 49.5 0.3 3.3 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.0 7.5 12.9 122.6 67.9 56.5 1.4 4.6 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.4 8.8 13.1 93.7 56.7 49.2 3.7 7.4 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.5 5.8 10.7 113.1 65.7 53.2 0.5 3.1 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------