***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 8.1 8.1 15.3 141.0 74.9 62.2 0.0 1.3 4.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 8.0 10.7 13.6 152.9 77.4 62.6 0.9 3.1 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 8.4 10.9 14.4 137.7 74.3 62.7 0.7 2.8 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 9.1 9.8 16.7 139.2 74.0 63.6 1.1 4.6 6.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 9.8 10.5 15.4 135.3 73.3 63.7 1.7 6.3 8.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 6.9 8.1 15.0 145.0 75.5 64.3 0.5 3.1 4.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 8.5 11.1 13.5 152.1 77.1 62.0 0.5 1.7 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 9.3 12.2 14.9 127.2 69.8 61.2 2.1 8.1 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 6.7 8.1 15.4 132.2 74.1 63.9 0.4 3.2 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 7.5 8.6 14.6 126.3 69.5 61.4 0.7 5.8 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 6.4 10.3 15.3 134.4 73.7 63.4 0.4 5.0 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 4.2 9.5 14.6 132.9 72.7 62.1 0.7 2.6 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 4.6 8.6 15.1 136.5 72.3 62.4 0.5 3.2 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 7.0 13.1 16.8 132.8 73.2 61.7 2.4 5.2 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 8.5 10.8 16.5 142.8 76.0 62.8 0.8 2.9 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.7 8.7 15.3 139.4 74.0 63.5 0.6 4.9 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.9 9.6 13.2 147.2 75.9 60.6 1.2 3.0 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 6.1 8.3 14.8 122.2 68.1 60.8 2.0 4.8 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 9.0 12.3 13.7 148.3 76.9 62.6 1.1 2.7 8.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 6.3 10.3 19.0 125.8 70.0 62.0 2.1 4.3 9.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 6.9 8.3 15.2 131.2 74.4 62.5 0.9 2.8 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 8.7 10.9 13.3 144.8 75.4 62.0 0.5 3.3 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 4.3 9.3 14.0 138.0 75.3 61.4 0.5 2.3 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 9.6 10.0 15.5 130.2 71.7 62.4 1.3 3.8 6.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 8.6 10.5 17.1 138.4 74.9 63.3 0.9 4.0 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 3.8 8.3 15.1 141.8 75.2 64.3 0.8 2.7 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 8.0 9.0 16.3 142.6 75.2 62.8 0.3 2.2 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 8.3 10.3 15.7 140.5 76.1 62.7 1.0 3.7 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 14.4 13.1 16.8 127.1 70.7 62.9 1.7 6.8 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 10.0 13.2 13.9 150.0 77.2 63.0 0.4 3.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------