***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.4 5.0 11.5 88.6 52.3 47.2 1.7 4.6 5.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.2 11.1 91.8 56.2 49.7 1.9 4.4 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.4 8.3 12.1 90.6 53.2 47.7 4.8 7.7 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 4.3 6.1 9.2 58.9 35.7 31.9 4.0 10.6 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.6 8.5 12.0 74.5 42.3 39.0 5.9 9.5 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 2.6 5.7 11.6 83.3 45.9 40.7 3.1 6.4 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.0 10.8 92.6 57.4 49.7 2.2 4.8 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 6.6 13.0 13.4 85.8 46.1 41.7 9.8 13.7 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.6 8.0 11.8 79.6 45.2 42.1 3.6 8.8 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.9 8.7 13.6 81.3 44.1 41.4 4.7 10.7 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.1 7.3 11.5 73.9 40.6 38.1 3.6 8.6 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.0 7.1 12.4 88.4 50.3 42.4 2.5 7.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 3.9 5.0 14.2 82.9 41.7 39.9 4.1 7.9 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 13.4 14.3 18.2 111.2 63.2 55.8 8.4 11.8 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 0.9 1.1 6.0 45.3 35.1 29.5 1.1 3.8 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.5 6.3 11.9 76.0 40.6 38.1 3.6 7.8 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.0 4.5 10.0 86.7 55.3 47.2 2.2 3.6 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 4.0 8.1 15.6 91.4 53.1 46.7 3.7 7.4 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 6.8 7.5 12.1 95.7 57.9 50.9 2.6 6.1 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 3.5 7.4 16.2 86.8 48.6 42.4 3.3 7.4 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.6 8.5 11.9 82.9 48.5 43.4 4.9 8.6 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.6 12.0 95.5 56.5 50.8 2.8 5.3 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 6.5 9.9 13.8 104.1 62.8 53.2 3.3 5.3 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.1 11.1 15.0 96.4 56.8 49.8 6.8 9.5 14.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.2 7.9 12.9 82.4 46.6 43.5 4.8 8.4 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.6 2.8 10.9 76.5 39.3 38.2 2.3 6.1 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.0 4.7 12.2 89.2 52.1 47.3 3.2 4.4 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 1.7 1.6 8.1 57.0 37.0 32.1 1.2 5.2 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.0 12.6 16.0 91.4 52.0 46.4 7.7 11.3 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 5.4 5.5 11.3 93.0 55.5 49.3 2.9 4.6 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------