***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-29.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 2.3 2.1 2.4 -1.0 37.2 40.8 2.0 3.0 4.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 1.5 1.8 2.3 -1.1 34.3 39.9 1.8 3.1 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.8 2.9 2.9 -1.0 35.9 40.9 2.8 3.8 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 -1.8 0.0 0.2 -0.6 41.2 44.2 -0.6 0.5 1.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.0 3.3 1.4 -0.9 38.2 41.8 2.8 3.9 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.3 3.9 1.4 -0.2 49.0 48.3 2.6 4.0 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 1.3 1.5 2.2 -1.1 35.3 39.7 1.4 2.9 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -2.1 -0.8 1.6 -0.5 43.6 45.1 -1.1 -0.3 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.4 4.0 2.4 -0.7 39.2 42.9 3.7 4.6 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 2.8 3.9 2.1 -0.6 42.0 44.4 3.1 4.2 4.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.9 3.7 1.8 -0.7 40.4 43.8 3.0 3.9 5.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.5 4.2 1.8 -0.5 43.6 45.1 3.7 4.9 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.2 4.3 1.9 -0.4 47.3 46.9 3.0 4.4 4.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 3.0 4.2 3.1 -0.8 39.6 42.9 3.3 4.8 5.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.1 2.4 1.5 -0.4 41.7 46.5 1.6 3.4 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.6 4.6 1.5 -0.5 42.5 45.0 3.5 4.7 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 1.4 1.4 2.4 -1.0 35.9 40.6 1.2 2.7 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 1.8 2.5 2.2 -0.5 42.7 45.0 2.2 2.6 2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 1.6 1.9 2.5 -1.1 34.2 40.1 1.8 3.6 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 0.3 1.1 1.0 -0.4 44.0 46.3 0.8 1.4 2.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.1 3.3 2.7 -0.9 37.2 41.7 3.2 4.2 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 1.8 2.0 2.6 -0.9 35.1 40.9 1.9 3.6 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 1.8 2.1 2.9 -1.0 35.8 41.3 2.0 2.9 4.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.2 4.1 3.0 -0.7 39.8 43.5 3.5 4.9 6.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 1.9 2.3 1.4 -0.9 37.9 41.4 2.2 2.8 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.0 4.3 1.5 -0.3 46.6 47.3 2.8 4.4 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.4 2.8 2.0 -1.0 37.1 40.4 2.6 3.3 5.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.9 3.1 0.9 -0.5 41.0 45.5 3.0 4.5 5.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 0.6 1.9 1.8 -0.4 43.5 45.7 1.5 2.1 2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 1.3 1.8 2.2 -1.2 35.2 39.8 1.7 2.8 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------