***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.01.2017.-29.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 0.6 1.3 3.4 -0.3 42.8 49.7 0.5 2.2 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 0.6 0.7 3.2 -0.5 40.5 48.7 0.5 1.7 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 1.4 1.5 3.9 -0.4 42.4 49.5 0.8 3.3 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 -3.0 -1.1 0.7 -0.6 41.5 46.6 -1.9 -0.4 1.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 2.4 3.3 2.2 -0.3 45.3 49.0 1.1 5.1 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.0 5.1 2.3 0.4 50.3 54.5 1.2 5.0 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 0.0 0.4 3.3 -0.4 41.5 49.6 0.1 1.5 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -3.3 -0.4 2.6 0.3 48.9 54.2 -2.2 -0.4 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.1 3.6 3.2 -0.1 46.9 50.5 1.6 4.6 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 1.9 3.8 3.0 0.2 49.3 53.1 1.2 3.9 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.2 3.6 2.5 0.0 46.4 51.4 1.5 4.8 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 1.7 4.3 2.8 0.3 48.2 54.1 1.4 4.4 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.4 5.1 2.5 0.5 50.1 55.5 1.5 5.1 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 2.1 4.3 4.3 0.3 49.0 53.5 0.8 4.4 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 0.8 2.6 1.2 -0.8 38.4 45.4 2.1 4.1 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.5 4.5 2.3 0.2 47.8 52.6 2.0 5.5 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 0.6 1.3 3.5 -0.3 43.0 49.5 0.3 1.6 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 1.3 3.3 3.6 0.6 53.1 55.9 1.0 2.9 5.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 0.3 0.6 3.4 -0.5 39.8 48.7 -0.1 1.6 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -0.8 3.1 2.0 0.7 53.7 57.3 -0.3 2.0 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.1 3.1 3.5 -0.3 45.0 49.7 1.8 4.3 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 0.9 1.3 3.6 -0.4 42.3 48.9 0.8 1.7 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 0.9 0.7 4.0 -0.3 40.3 49.7 0.4 2.6 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.0 4.0 4.1 0.3 49.5 53.8 1.6 4.2 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 1.4 1.9 1.9 -0.4 43.4 48.7 0.6 3.2 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.7 5.5 2.4 0.4 50.4 55.4 1.8 5.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.2 2.0 3.0 -0.2 45.2 50.3 0.7 3.5 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 1.7 3.4 1.1 -0.6 41.4 47.0 1.9 4.1 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -0.8 2.5 3.2 0.7 53.8 57.1 -0.8 2.2 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 0.2 0.5 3.1 -0.5 40.2 48.9 0.2 1.8 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------