***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 1.8 1.9 1.5 -2.1 27.4 38.7 2.4 3.2 4.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 0.9 0.6 1.1 -2.4 27.0 37.7 1.3 2.4 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 1.8 2.5 1.8 -2.3 27.6 38.7 2.8 3.8 4.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 -3.7 -3.3 -0.9 -2.0 30.1 39.2 -1.8 0.1 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 1.6 2.7 0.6 -1.8 30.8 40.5 2.9 4.6 5.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.3 3.4 1.5 -0.5 43.6 47.7 2.7 4.0 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 0.5 -0.1 1.2 -2.3 25.9 38.0 1.0 2.6 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -2.6 -1.8 1.6 -0.8 38.6 46.2 -2.3 -0.9 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 2.2 2.9 1.6 -1.7 32.0 41.5 2.9 5.3 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 1.7 3.4 1.8 -1.1 35.9 44.7 3.1 4.2 5.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 1.9 2.6 1.1 -1.4 33.0 42.6 2.6 4.5 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.7 4.4 1.7 -0.9 37.6 45.4 3.1 5.0 5.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 1.6 3.6 1.7 -0.5 44.8 47.7 2.5 3.9 4.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 2.3 2.6 2.3 -1.5 32.1 43.1 2.6 4.7 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 0.8 2.1 -0.5 -2.1 30.1 38.5 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.0 3.8 1.1 -1.1 37.7 44.2 3.7 5.0 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 0.4 0.9 1.4 -2.1 28.7 39.0 1.2 2.4 3.7 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 0.7 2.2 2.3 -0.8 39.6 46.9 2.1 2.6 3.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 1.0 0.6 1.3 -2.4 27.3 38.0 1.4 3.0 4.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 0.0 1.4 1.4 -0.1 45.5 50.4 0.2 1.6 2.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 1.9 3.0 1.8 -1.9 30.1 40.3 3.0 4.3 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 0.9 0.8 1.5 -2.1 28.9 39.4 1.8 3.5 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 1.3 1.3 2.0 -2.2 28.9 39.6 1.5 2.8 4.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 2.5 3.3 2.3 -1.4 33.8 43.5 3.3 4.0 5.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 0.9 1.8 0.4 -1.8 30.5 40.0 2.0 3.1 4.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.6 3.9 1.7 -0.3 43.7 49.1 2.6 4.1 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 1.5 2.1 1.3 -1.9 29.6 39.7 2.4 3.5 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 1.2 3.3 -0.5 -2.0 30.7 39.6 3.5 4.4 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 -0.5 1.6 2.1 -0.5 41.9 48.4 0.9 1.8 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 1.1 0.3 1.0 -2.4 25.9 37.5 1.2 2.9 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------