***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 1.2 1.9 0.9 -2.2 31.9 38.3 1.9 4.7 5.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 -0.4 0.7 0.8 -2.2 32.0 38.0 1.0 3.3 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 1.3 1.7 1.3 -2.3 34.2 38.3 1.3 4.8 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 -2.4 -1.6 -1.1 -1.5 35.3 40.8 -1.8 -0.3 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 1.7 1.8 0.0 -2.0 33.5 39.2 1.8 4.5 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 1.5 2.2 0.0 -1.5 36.0 41.8 1.5 3.7 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 -0.2 0.3 0.7 -2.3 30.5 37.5 0.6 2.8 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 -1.8 -1.7 -0.1 -2.1 29.1 39.0 -1.3 0.5 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 2.1 1.7 0.8 -2.0 33.0 39.1 1.7 5.2 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 1.4 1.0 0.2 -2.2 31.0 38.6 1.1 3.8 6.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 1.7 1.7 0.4 -2.0 33.8 39.4 1.7 4.6 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 1.6 2.1 0.2 -2.0 30.1 39.5 2.4 5.1 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 1.5 2.0 0.5 -2.0 31.6 40.2 2.0 4.1 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 1.3 0.9 1.1 -2.6 32.3 37.6 0.9 5.9 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 0.9 1.3 0.5 -1.0 36.3 43.0 1.2 2.8 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 2.4 2.8 0.1 -1.8 34.1 39.9 2.7 4.9 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 -0.5 0.4 0.8 -2.1 31.9 38.2 0.4 3.0 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 -0.4 0.0 0.2 -2.4 30.4 38.5 0.2 1.8 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 -0.3 0.6 1.0 -2.2 32.7 38.2 0.6 4.0 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 -1.0 -1.6 -0.6 -2.1 29.7 40.2 -1.3 1.9 2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 1.4 1.6 1.2 -2.1 33.5 38.9 1.4 4.7 7.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 -0.7 0.9 1.1 -2.1 33.6 38.7 0.9 2.6 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 -0.3 1.1 1.3 -2.3 34.2 38.3 0.9 3.1 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 2.1 1.6 1.1 -2.4 31.9 38.2 1.9 7.0 8.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 0.3 1.4 0.0 -2.1 32.1 38.3 1.7 3.3 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.0 1.9 0.1 -1.8 30.5 40.4 2.0 4.1 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 0.7 1.7 0.5 -2.3 29.8 37.4 2.5 4.3 6.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 1.4 1.3 -0.2 -1.3 35.4 41.8 1.0 3.4 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 -2.3 29.8 38.9 0.4 2.8 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 -0.3 0.6 0.8 -2.3 32.4 38.0 0.7 3.5 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------