***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 4.9 4.6 3.7 0.5 53.2 52.0 0.2 4.5 5.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 95 5 100 3.6 3.6 4.0 0.6 53.1 52.1 0.6 3.4 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 5.8 6.3 4.5 0.7 53.6 53.5 1.7 5.4 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 3.6 3.0 2.1 1.7 62.7 64.2 -2.4 1.5 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 5.3 5.5 2.8 0.7 53.5 54.0 1.7 4.6 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.8 1.7 0.7 53.7 55.4 1.4 4.6 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 94 6 100 3.4 3.2 3.6 0.4 51.8 51.0 0.8 3.2 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -0.7 -1.1 2.3 0.5 50.6 52.5 -3.1 -1.2 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 6.4 7.4 4.0 0.9 55.5 56.2 2.6 6.0 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 4.9 5.2 3.2 0.8 53.0 55.1 2.9 4.3 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.2 4.9 3.4 0.7 54.8 54.8 2.5 4.3 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 6.9 6.4 2.6 0.5 50.5 52.4 2.7 6.3 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.1 3.1 0.5 49.9 52.9 2.6 4.1 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 5.6 5.3 4.6 0.8 53.1 54.0 2.3 4.9 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 7.8 7.6 4.6 2.6 72.5 71.8 1.0 4.1 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.6 2.6 0.6 52.3 54.0 2.8 5.4 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 96 4 100 2.8 3.0 3.7 0.7 53.2 52.6 0.3 2.6 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 3.3 2.8 2.6 0.4 49.7 51.9 1.5 2.8 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 3.9 4.1 4.2 0.7 53.6 52.8 0.4 3.6 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.3 1.0 1.0 0.0 44.8 48.5 -0.7 1.6 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 6.4 6.9 4.5 0.8 54.3 54.5 1.7 6.0 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 95 5 100 3.3 3.6 4.2 0.8 53.7 53.5 1.2 3.0 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 4.6 4.6 4.5 0.9 53.9 54.3 1.2 4.2 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 7.1 7.2 4.3 0.7 53.0 53.7 2.6 6.5 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 4.8 4.8 3.2 0.8 53.9 55.1 1.1 4.3 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.5 4.9 1.8 0.3 48.0 50.8 2.2 5.1 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 6.3 6.1 3.2 0.3 51.1 50.6 1.2 6.0 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 8.1 7.0 3.3 2.0 66.7 66.3 1.6 4.1 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 3.3 2.6 2.0 0.3 47.6 50.8 0.1 2.8 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 4.3 4.1 4.0 0.5 52.5 51.8 0.3 4.0 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------