***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.01.2017.-22.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 -3.4 -3.5 -5.3 -2.2 27.6 40.2 -3.1 -1.6 -1.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 -5.4 -5.0 -5.6 -2.4 26.2 38.7 -3.8 -2.7 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 -2.6 -2.2 -5.6 -2.4 27.7 38.4 -1.9 -0.7 0.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 -8.7 -8.6 -8.3 -2.1 28.6 38.6 -6.9 -6.2 -4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 -4.9 -4.6 -7.9 -2.3 28.7 38.4 -4.4 -3.5 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 -5.4 -5.6 -8.4 -1.1 37.7 45.1 -5.7 -3.6 -2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 -5.5 -4.9 -5.6 -2.4 26.0 39.1 -4.1 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -9.2 -8.3 -8.2 -1.3 36.7 43.9 -8.6 -7.5 -5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 -4.0 -3.6 -7.3 -2.3 28.9 38.9 -3.0 -1.9 -0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 -4.6 -3.7 -8.0 -1.8 33.5 41.6 -3.8 -2.9 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 -4.7 -4.3 -8.3 -2.1 30.9 39.9 -4.3 -3.1 -1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 -5.8 -5.2 -8.1 -1.4 34.5 43.4 -5.3 -4.0 -2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 -4.9 -4.8 -7.9 -1.1 36.7 44.9 -4.9 -3.7 -2.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 -3.8 -2.8 -7.1 -2.0 31.4 40.5 -2.8 -1.9 -1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 -4.6 -5.0 -7.2 -2.0 26.3 39.1 -4.0 -2.0 -1.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 -4.2 -3.7 -8.5 -1.8 32.0 41.3 -3.5 -2.7 -1.4 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 -6.1 -5.0 -5.4 -2.3 27.4 39.5 -4.3 -2.9 -2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 -6.4 -6.0 -8.4 -1.5 33.7 43.0 -6.0 -5.1 -3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 -5.3 -5.3 -5.7 -2.4 26.3 38.5 -3.4 -2.6 -1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -10.2 -8.1 -8.3 -0.6 43.1 47.6 -9.7 -7.7 -6.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 -4.2 -3.9 -6.2 -2.3 28.2 39.1 -3.6 -2.8 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 -5.6 -5.1 -5.6 -2.3 26.5 39.1 -3.8 -2.8 -2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 -4.3 -5.2 -5.9 -2.3 27.3 38.7 -4.3 -2.2 -1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 -4.5 -4.3 -7.5 -2.1 29.5 40.2 -4.1 -3.2 -2.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 -3.8 -3.9 -6.5 -2.0 29.0 40.3 -3.7 -2.0 -1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 -5.4 -4.4 -7.6 -0.8 38.7 47.0 -4.9 -3.1 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 -4.4 -3.9 -5.6 -2.0 28.7 41.0 -3.7 -2.6 -1.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 -5.7 -5.0 -8.1 -2.1 27.6 38.8 -4.7 -3.0 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 -7.2 -6.1 -8.3 -1.2 36.8 44.9 -6.2 -5.8 -4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 -5.0 -4.7 -5.6 -2.4 26.5 38.7 -3.4 -2.3 -1.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------