***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.01.2017.-15.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 -4.1 -3.3 -4.9 -1.9 33.4 39.7 -3.4 -0.8 -0.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 -5.9 -3.1 -4.8 -1.6 34.9 40.1 -3.5 -1.9 -1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 -3.9 -2.5 -4.7 -1.7 33.1 40.4 -2.5 0.1 1.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -7.8 -8.2 -7.2 -1.4 34.8 41.9 -8.2 -5.5 -3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 -5.6 -3.7 -6.8 -1.8 32.1 40.3 -3.7 -2.5 -1.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 -7.1 -5.8 -8.1 -0.8 37.0 46.5 -6.6 -4.5 -2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 -5.5 -3.4 -5.0 -1.8 33.7 39.3 -3.4 -1.9 -0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 -9.3 -8.6 -8.1 -1.5 31.7 42.0 -8.4 -7.3 -5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 -5.2 -5.0 -6.4 -1.4 31.5 41.5 -4.5 -1.1 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 -6.5 -5.2 -7.7 -1.6 31.0 41.2 -5.1 -2.4 -1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 -6.5 -5.9 -7.2 -1.5 31.9 41.8 -5.6 -2.5 -1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 -6.7 -7.1 -7.5 -1.4 32.1 42.7 -7.1 -3.2 -2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 -6.5 -6.0 -7.4 -1.2 33.8 44.5 -6.2 -3.3 -1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 -5.5 -3.2 -6.5 -1.7 33.2 40.9 -3.3 -0.9 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 -5.4 -4.7 -5.3 -0.6 38.1 45.5 -4.9 -2.7 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 -4.9 -4.3 -7.5 -1.3 33.3 43.4 -4.3 -2.2 -1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 -5.6 -3.4 -4.9 -1.6 35.6 40.4 -3.6 -2.2 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 -8.6 -6.8 -8.0 -1.6 32.6 41.0 -6.7 -4.2 -2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 -5.6 -3.4 -4.8 -1.5 34.8 40.5 -3.6 -1.6 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 -12.4 -9.7 -8.6 -1.4 36.9 42.7 -10.2 -8.9 -7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 -5.4 -4.7 -5.4 -1.6 32.1 41.0 -4.4 -2.0 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 -5.5 -4.1 -4.7 -1.4 35.7 40.9 -4.9 -2.0 -1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 -5.3 -3.5 -5.0 -1.5 34.5 40.8 -3.8 -1.8 -1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 -5.4 -4.1 -6.5 -1.5 32.5 41.3 -4.1 -2.0 -1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 -5.4 -3.8 -6.0 -2.0 32.5 39.3 -3.8 -2.3 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 -6.3 -6.2 -7.4 -1.3 34.1 44.4 -6.3 -3.9 -1.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 -5.9 -3.4 -5.4 -2.0 32.7 39.4 -3.4 -1.7 -0.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 -6.2 -6.1 -6.6 -1.0 36.5 44.5 -6.2 -3.7 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 -8.0 -8.0 -8.6 -1.5 34.2 41.5 -8.1 -4.7 -2.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 -5.9 -3.2 -4.8 -1.7 33.2 39.8 -3.3 -1.8 -0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------