***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 94 6 100 -1.9 -2.4 -2.4 0.0 44.5 44.6 -4.4 -2.1 0.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 92 8 100 -2.4 -2.7 -2.1 0.4 48.2 48.9 -4.2 -2.6 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 94 6 100 -0.2 -1.1 -2.0 0.3 46.3 46.7 -2.5 -0.4 1.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 -4.9 -5.1 -3.4 1.2 53.7 57.6 -8.7 -5.3 -3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 -1.9 -2.7 -3.8 0.0 42.5 43.4 -3.8 -2.2 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 -2.4 -2.7 -5.8 0.5 49.1 50.1 -6.5 -2.6 -1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 -2.2 -2.5 -2.3 0.2 48.8 48.5 -4.6 -2.4 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -6.4 -9.0 -6.3 -0.6 39.1 40.6 -10.2 -6.9 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 -1.5 -2.6 -3.8 0.1 41.9 43.1 -3.4 -1.8 0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 -1.9 -3.2 -5.7 -0.6 38.4 39.7 -4.5 -2.2 -1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 -1.7 -2.8 -4.7 -0.4 39.4 40.5 -4.5 -1.9 -1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 -2.5 -3.8 -4.9 0.1 44.0 45.1 -5.7 -2.9 -1.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 -2.1 -3.4 -4.9 0.1 44.1 46.0 -4.7 -2.4 -0.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 -1.5 -1.9 -3.6 0.4 47.9 49.2 -3.4 -1.8 -0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 93 7 100 -1.3 -1.2 -1.6 1.5 59.6 60.7 -3.7 -1.4 -1.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 -1.1 -1.6 -4.5 0.4 46.0 47.6 -4.0 -1.2 -0.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 92 8 100 -2.5 -2.7 -2.0 0.7 51.6 51.8 -5.0 -2.8 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 -3.6 -4.5 -5.2 0.2 46.1 47.4 -5.6 -3.9 -2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 93 7 100 -1.7 -2.3 -2.2 0.4 47.4 48.5 -3.9 -1.9 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 -6.4 -7.3 -6.6 0.0 45.0 46.9 -9.7 -7.1 -4.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 94 6 100 -1.7 -2.0 -2.5 0.3 44.7 45.2 -3.6 -1.8 0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 -2.4 -2.6 -1.9 0.6 51.7 51.5 -5.0 -2.6 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 94 6 100 -2.1 -2.4 -2.6 0.3 45.3 46.6 -3.4 -2.3 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 -2.0 -2.3 -3.4 0.5 48.0 49.4 -3.7 -2.2 -1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 -1.6 -2.5 -2.6 0.3 45.9 47.1 -3.7 -1.7 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 -5.8 -5.0 -6.0 -0.8 35.5 38.1 -5.2 -2.0 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 92 8 100 -1.3 -2.0 -2.7 0.0 43.8 44.4 -3.9 -1.6 0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 88 12 100 -2.4 -2.2 -2.6 1.7 58.4 61.6 -4.6 -2.7 -1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 -3.4 -5.1 -6.5 -0.1 43.0 45.4 -7.5 -3.9 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 94 6 100 -2.0 -2.4 -2.2 0.2 46.6 47.0 -3.8 -2.2 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------