***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-28.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 19.0 27.1 40.9 90.9 43.9 43.0 20.4 31.8 39.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 33.9 31.8 38.5 98.9 53.0 50.7 19.2 31.1 35.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 45.4 41.7 41.1 93.8 49.5 45.8 27.3 42.1 49.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 28.8 35.3 43.1 86.9 44.5 41.4 30.9 49.6 55.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 24.5 37.7 44.7 90.5 46.8 43.0 24.8 40.9 51.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 16.9 26.8 38.8 82.7 40.9 38.9 20.5 28.3 42.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 16.8 32.9 38.4 101.3 55.1 51.9 19.0 26.3 36.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 30.4 44.6 47.9 89.8 47.5 43.9 29.5 45.5 67.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 19.4 28.3 45.6 91.4 48.8 43.0 18.8 29.2 44.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 22.9 31.5 49.4 92.7 49.0 44.7 23.0 31.8 45.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 21.0 30.6 44.0 90.6 47.8 43.9 20.0 32.3 41.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 20.2 30.8 41.9 87.2 45.1 42.3 19.4 30.8 44.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 21.5 25.6 44.4 86.3 41.4 41.0 22.4 29.4 45.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 55.4 51.8 55.5 101.7 57.6 51.0 40.6 51.1 59.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 23.7 36.4 39.3 84.8 46.0 41.8 24.0 38.5 47.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 20.0 28.9 42.6 88.4 44.9 42.7 17.0 33.5 44.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 29.8 31.4 39.3 104.7 57.3 54.4 20.6 26.9 34.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 20.9 28.7 53.5 95.6 52.2 46.6 22.6 27.8 45.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 35.4 34.6 39.7 98.2 53.1 50.2 25.6 32.8 42.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 23.8 37.6 66.0 95.7 53.2 47.9 20.0 36.2 46.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 21.5 30.5 43.9 92.0 47.0 43.1 25.5 32.7 46.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 33.3 32.4 41.9 104.2 56.1 54.8 19.8 30.5 39.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 35.3 33.3 43.0 99.2 55.2 50.3 22.7 31.8 39.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 31.9 41.7 49.4 97.0 53.3 47.3 32.2 40.1 52.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 21.3 26.2 46.3 89.3 43.9 40.7 24.3 31.0 46.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 16.7 15.2 38.5 79.4 37.0 36.6 13.8 28.0 37.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 19.1 28.8 43.3 90.9 45.0 42.4 21.3 31.5 39.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 18.4 27.4 39.4 85.3 44.3 41.3 22.1 30.0 44.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 35.6 54.4 58.8 97.6 55.1 48.2 35.3 52.4 73.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 36.1 33.0 38.6 96.2 50.4 48.6 18.7 32.7 40.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------