***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.01.2018.-28.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 3.2 5.6 7.3 65.2 42.9 36.5 4.6 7.7 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 1.6 3.9 6.2 62.0 43.9 36.5 2.6 4.9 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 3.0 7.8 7.8 71.8 47.8 39.5 3.6 8.1 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 2.9 8.8 9.0 75.6 50.8 38.8 2.1 8.8 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 3.1 7.9 9.4 79.8 52.9 40.3 3.5 7.5 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.0 5.5 8.0 68.5 42.1 36.6 4.4 6.5 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.1 5.1 6.4 64.7 45.2 37.1 1.2 5.6 8.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 5.4 11.1 10.0 76.4 49.2 39.9 4.0 11.1 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.9 7.3 10.0 81.4 52.6 41.1 3.4 7.1 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.8 7.5 10.6 81.7 51.2 41.3 4.4 7.5 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.1 7.0 9.1 79.3 50.5 40.3 3.4 6.8 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.4 4.5 8.7 75.1 48.2 38.8 2.9 4.8 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.7 5.8 8.6 70.5 42.8 36.7 4.8 7.4 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 4.7 12.5 10.7 79.5 50.1 42.0 7.3 12.4 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 1.2 6.7 8.7 75.6 56.1 38.9 0.9 4.1 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.2 4.4 8.6 75.5 47.2 38.5 2.6 4.8 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 1.9 3.5 6.1 62.1 44.7 36.5 1.4 4.7 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.8 7.2 11.4 83.1 50.9 42.3 4.0 7.1 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 2.4 5.6 6.6 64.6 44.6 37.2 2.8 7.8 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 4.3 8.5 13.7 76.0 47.6 40.7 2.3 9.6 13.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.3 7.1 9.1 77.8 49.1 40.3 3.8 7.4 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 2.1 5.7 6.6 64.0 43.8 36.9 3.2 6.7 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 2.3 6.8 7.7 71.2 47.9 39.1 3.9 6.8 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 4.6 11.8 10.1 80.8 51.5 42.3 5.8 11.2 15.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 3.1 5.1 8.6 67.1 42.1 36.6 4.9 7.4 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.6 3.9 7.3 60.3 39.7 33.9 3.1 6.5 9.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 2.5 4.8 7.6 63.9 41.2 35.9 2.7 6.1 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 1.4 5.6 8.6 77.0 54.1 39.1 1.1 4.5 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 6.4 11.8 12.3 81.1 48.5 41.9 6.1 12.2 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 2.0 4.4 6.5 63.3 45.2 36.8 2.2 6.9 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------