***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 1.6 4.3 10.1 99.6 60.2 48.2 0.0 3.7 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 1.4 4.3 9.4 107.1 64.2 50.4 0.3 2.8 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.4 7.6 9.9 102.3 61.0 49.7 0.5 5.3 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 4.3 9.9 10.3 94.2 58.2 47.1 2.6 8.1 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 2.0 6.9 10.6 98.0 57.6 48.0 0.8 4.9 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.4 5.3 9.0 83.5 50.6 45.4 0.6 5.0 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 3.9 3.6 9.2 107.1 62.5 49.6 0.2 2.2 3.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 4.7 10.6 10.8 91.8 54.3 46.8 4.4 9.0 13.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 1.7 7.8 11.5 100.7 58.1 48.7 0.9 4.3 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.1 6.2 11.7 99.0 56.6 48.8 1.4 4.3 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 1.9 5.5 10.2 97.6 56.2 47.9 1.0 4.1 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.3 5.1 9.5 89.4 52.7 46.0 1.7 4.8 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.4 10.2 90.2 50.3 46.8 2.2 5.3 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.1 9.6 13.3 110.3 60.1 51.3 2.7 6.1 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.2 7.2 10.1 94.9 63.8 47.6 1.7 5.1 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 1.9 4.7 10.0 94.5 53.8 47.1 0.7 3.8 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.3 3.1 9.3 108.5 63.0 49.6 0.0 1.9 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 2.8 7.0 12.8 102.3 58.0 49.2 2.0 5.3 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 1.8 6.3 9.5 106.0 63.9 50.6 0.3 3.8 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 2.5 6.2 15.1 96.1 56.1 48.3 2.2 4.5 8.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 1.6 8.2 10.9 101.9 58.3 48.5 0.4 4.0 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.8 6.4 9.6 106.3 64.0 50.4 0.0 2.6 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 1.5 7.0 10.0 105.1 61.9 50.3 0.3 3.2 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.3 8.8 11.9 107.0 60.5 50.4 1.9 4.6 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 1.8 7.1 11.4 98.9 58.3 47.1 0.2 4.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 3.7 1.9 8.2 75.9 46.5 43.0 0.9 2.4 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.4 4.4 10.9 101.1 59.4 48.2 0.2 3.2 6.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.1 6.3 9.6 92.5 59.4 46.8 0.9 4.6 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 3.6 10.0 14.0 103.1 57.6 49.6 4.1 7.0 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 0.7 3.9 9.4 104.3 62.6 50.1 0.3 1.5 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------