***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 0.6 3.9 12.3 113.8 62.9 53.1 0.1 1.2 5.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 1.2 6.3 10.9 120.6 67.0 56.7 1.3 2.3 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 5.2 6.8 12.3 117.8 65.6 55.2 0.9 2.9 7.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.3 7.3 14.3 124.8 69.0 58.0 1.2 4.5 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 6.5 7.1 12.9 110.6 59.4 53.1 1.4 5.1 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 3.7 3.5 12.3 109.3 62.2 53.0 0.9 3.1 3.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 0.7 5.5 10.6 119.7 67.3 56.4 0.8 1.2 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 7.8 8.2 13.6 106.4 59.3 52.5 2.1 6.7 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 3.9 4.7 13.0 106.9 59.6 52.1 0.4 2.7 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.2 13.5 108.2 58.7 52.6 0.7 5.5 7.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.8 13.3 111.3 60.9 54.3 0.4 3.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 4.4 4.4 12.5 106.1 59.6 52.0 0.4 2.9 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.6 13.1 108.8 60.6 52.4 1.2 3.1 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.6 14.5 111.2 61.0 53.6 3.2 6.1 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 7.7 8.0 14.0 132.0 72.7 59.3 0.7 4.3 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.1 6.2 13.0 111.0 61.7 53.3 0.9 4.0 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 5.8 6.9 11.1 123.2 68.7 58.1 1.2 3.5 6.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 4.9 4.8 13.6 102.9 56.0 51.0 1.3 3.6 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 1.6 7.6 11.5 122.0 67.6 56.8 1.4 3.0 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.4 18.1 108.7 60.4 54.8 1.4 3.6 8.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 3.9 6.5 12.7 109.6 61.2 52.7 0.8 2.5 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.9 6.8 11.5 119.0 66.9 56.1 1.5 3.9 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 9.1 9.4 12.8 124.1 68.8 57.3 0.8 3.3 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 5.3 5.1 13.3 108.2 60.4 52.5 2.2 3.2 6.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.3 3.9 14.0 113.8 61.0 53.7 1.1 3.0 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.6 12.6 106.2 59.7 52.0 1.1 3.5 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 0.8 5.5 12.9 113.4 61.6 53.7 0.3 1.6 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 4.3 6.0 13.3 123.5 68.7 57.5 1.0 2.4 5.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 7.7 7.9 14.9 102.6 55.2 51.5 3.1 5.4 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.2 6.2 11.0 118.2 66.9 55.3 0.6 2.3 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------