***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 7.6 6.7 11.2 87.3 55.6 51.1 3.2 5.9 14.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 8.2 9.5 12.1 108.3 64.3 58.2 3.0 7.2 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 12.0 10.6 11.2 86.5 54.8 50.9 5.9 9.5 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.5 8.1 9.4 61.9 41.6 38.2 4.8 8.8 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 13.5 9.8 11.7 77.7 47.8 44.2 6.7 11.1 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.3 6.2 9.6 71.8 44.2 39.7 4.4 7.3 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 8.2 11.2 12.2 115.4 65.2 59.4 4.8 7.0 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 16.9 16.1 13.5 86.5 54.3 48.5 9.7 14.4 24.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.1 9.3 11.1 79.2 50.6 45.5 5.9 9.3 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.3 12.6 13.6 84.6 52.4 47.0 4.1 12.5 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.4 9.6 11.5 77.5 49.0 43.6 5.0 10.1 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 10.9 10.8 11.1 80.0 52.3 46.9 4.0 8.8 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.3 9.3 12.5 78.8 46.2 43.4 4.3 12.2 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 15.5 18.6 17.0 106.2 62.4 56.6 6.6 14.4 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.5 2.0 6.5 47.7 40.3 36.7 1.1 5.6 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.8 6.9 11.1 75.9 47.0 43.1 5.1 8.0 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 7.1 10.7 12.9 126.1 67.5 61.9 4.0 5.6 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 10.9 11.1 15.7 94.9 56.0 51.4 2.8 9.5 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 9.9 10.9 12.1 102.5 61.7 56.3 4.0 9.3 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 10.6 11.0 19.1 103.1 58.4 54.7 3.0 7.6 16.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 11.1 9.1 11.3 81.7 51.7 47.8 4.8 9.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 7.4 9.7 14.3 127.2 66.1 61.9 2.1 6.1 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 10.2 10.9 12.5 98.2 59.0 54.4 3.8 9.3 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 17.0 16.9 14.0 93.7 56.7 51.6 4.8 16.2 17.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 11.5 10.2 12.3 81.0 51.2 47.1 5.0 9.4 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.6 7.0 10.5 75.8 47.3 42.9 3.6 7.5 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 8.7 8.5 11.9 87.8 55.3 50.9 4.0 6.4 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.0 2.9 7.8 56.6 41.1 36.9 1.9 9.1 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 17.7 18.0 17.6 104.4 58.4 54.4 6.1 15.7 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 8.2 9.2 11.7 101.2 61.7 56.0 4.6 6.8 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------