***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-28.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 5.2 6.6 6.4 3.0 82.1 78.2 2.0 2.8 4.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 4.6 5.4 6.3 2.9 80.5 76.4 1.9 2.7 4.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 5.9 6.8 6.8 2.9 80.4 76.6 3.0 3.6 5.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 1.5 2.4 3.9 3.0 82.7 78.0 -0.7 0.4 1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 5.4 6.5 5.0 2.9 81.3 77.9 3.0 3.9 5.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 5.3 5.6 4.0 2.6 80.8 76.2 2.5 4.2 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 4.2 5.7 6.2 2.9 82.5 77.1 1.6 2.5 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 0.6 1.0 4.2 2.4 79.5 74.5 -1.1 -0.6 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 6.7 7.3 5.8 2.9 80.0 77.1 3.6 4.7 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 5.6 6.1 5.0 2.6 79.9 75.7 2.9 4.4 4.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 5.7 6.7 5.2 2.9 81.2 77.3 3.1 4.3 5.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 6.3 6.7 4.6 2.6 80.1 75.9 3.7 4.9 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 5.6 6.4 4.6 2.6 80.7 75.9 3.2 4.3 4.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 7.1 8.0 6.3 2.7 78.3 74.6 3.4 4.8 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 5.5 6.7 4.9 3.0 81.9 77.9 2.0 3.2 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 6.2 6.8 4.7 2.8 81.4 77.1 3.6 4.9 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 4.2 5.0 6.1 2.7 80.8 75.7 1.3 2.5 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 3.8 4.1 4.9 2.5 79.5 75.1 2.0 2.6 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 5.0 5.9 6.5 2.9 80.1 76.1 1.8 3.1 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 3.1 4.0 3.0 2.1 80.5 73.3 0.8 1.5 2.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 6.1 7.0 6.4 2.9 81.0 77.0 3.2 4.3 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 5.0 5.9 6.2 2.7 79.9 75.1 1.8 3.4 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 4.8 5.9 6.7 2.9 80.7 75.8 2.1 2.7 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 7.5 8.4 6.2 2.7 78.9 75.1 3.7 5.0 6.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 4.9 5.5 5.3 3.1 83.2 78.9 2.0 2.9 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 5.2 5.4 3.8 2.3 79.3 75.1 2.8 4.5 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 17 83 100 5.8 6.7 6.0 3.0 83.0 78.7 2.5 3.4 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 6.6 7.8 4.4 2.9 82.0 77.0 2.6 4.3 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 3.9 4.8 4.2 2.3 80.2 74.4 1.7 2.1 2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 4.4 5.7 6.3 2.9 81.3 77.0 1.7 2.3 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------