***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.01.2018.-21.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 4.9 5.4 6.0 2.9 71.8 69.5 2.4 3.5 4.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 4.9 5.4 5.8 2.9 70.4 68.1 1.2 3.4 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 6.0 5.9 6.3 2.8 71.6 67.8 2.6 4.4 5.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 2.1 2.4 3.5 2.9 72.9 69.8 -3.1 0.1 1.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 5.6 5.8 4.6 2.9 71.5 69.2 2.9 4.3 5.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 5.6 5.5 4.0 2.7 68.4 67.7 2.3 3.9 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 4.5 4.9 5.8 2.9 70.4 68.9 0.6 3.0 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 1.2 1.3 4.1 2.5 68.9 66.8 -2.2 -1.3 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 6.9 7.1 5.5 2.9 69.7 68.3 2.9 5.0 6.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 5.6 5.9 4.9 2.7 68.9 67.3 2.5 4.1 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 5.7 5.7 4.6 2.8 69.7 68.5 2.2 4.3 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 6.7 6.5 4.5 2.6 69.4 67.7 2.2 4.5 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 5.4 4.9 4.0 2.6 67.3 67.6 2.6 3.4 4.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 6.4 6.7 5.8 2.6 66.7 65.3 2.6 4.4 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 5.7 5.3 4.2 2.9 69.6 68.9 1.8 4.4 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 5.9 6.1 4.4 2.8 70.0 68.7 3.2 4.8 5.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 4.2 4.7 5.8 2.7 69.2 67.6 1.3 2.8 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 3.6 3.5 5.0 2.6 68.1 66.0 1.4 2.3 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 5.0 5.7 6.0 2.9 70.3 67.7 1.4 3.2 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 3.6 2.5 2.9 2.1 65.5 64.2 0.3 1.2 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 5.8 5.9 5.9 2.8 70.2 68.2 2.7 4.3 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 4.9 5.2 5.8 2.6 67.8 66.6 1.6 3.3 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 4.5 4.8 6.4 2.8 69.7 66.9 1.9 2.8 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 6.1 6.8 5.7 2.6 68.5 66.0 2.9 3.8 6.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 4.5 4.9 4.6 2.9 72.2 69.9 2.1 3.1 4.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 6.0 5.4 3.8 2.4 71.0 68.0 2.4 3.4 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 5.1 5.7 5.5 2.9 72.6 69.8 2.2 3.5 4.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 6.1 6.1 3.9 2.9 70.5 68.8 2.6 4.7 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 4.2 3.5 4.3 2.4 67.3 65.1 0.1 1.8 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 4.7 4.7 5.8 2.9 71.5 68.6 1.1 3.2 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------