***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 6.9 6.9 5.9 2.6 69.7 68.0 1.6 5.2 6.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 5.5 6.1 5.7 2.2 65.8 64.9 0.7 3.4 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 7.1 7.7 6.2 2.3 66.5 65.5 1.5 4.8 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 2.4 3.4 3.4 2.5 71.1 67.6 -2.3 -0.3 3.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 6.8 6.9 4.7 2.6 70.6 68.7 1.7 4.1 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 6.5 6.2 3.8 2.5 68.8 67.7 0.7 3.2 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 5.2 5.8 5.6 2.3 67.5 65.7 0.3 3.3 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 2.0 1.6 3.7 2.0 66.5 65.3 -1.6 0.2 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 7.8 8.3 5.4 2.4 69.6 67.7 1.5 5.0 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 6.8 7.2 4.5 2.1 67.7 65.7 0.8 3.4 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 7.2 7.5 5.0 2.6 69.8 68.6 1.3 4.1 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 7.7 6.7 4.3 2.3 68.5 67.2 1.7 4.6 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 7.2 7.5 4.7 2.6 69.3 68.4 1.3 4.4 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.7 7.6 5.5 1.8 62.0 62.5 1.1 5.7 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 5.9 6.7 4.6 2.6 70.3 68.3 0.7 2.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 8.1 7.6 4.6 2.7 70.3 69.0 2.1 4.8 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 4.9 5.2 5.2 1.8 62.8 63.0 0.4 2.9 5.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 4.3 4.1 4.2 1.9 64.7 64.2 0.2 2.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 6.4 6.5 5.8 2.2 65.7 64.9 0.5 4.3 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 2.1 2.4 2.6 1.8 61.3 63.6 -1.9 1.5 2.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 6.9 7.9 6.0 2.3 68.2 66.5 1.6 4.3 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 4.0 5.1 5.4 1.7 61.4 61.9 0.7 3.1 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 5.7 6.3 6.1 2.3 65.0 65.2 0.6 3.4 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 8.3 9.2 5.5 2.0 64.4 63.9 1.6 5.9 9.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 5.5 6.8 5.0 2.7 71.9 68.7 1.5 3.2 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 6.6 6.7 3.8 2.4 69.1 69.2 1.7 4.0 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 7.0 7.7 5.6 2.7 70.9 68.8 2.0 4.3 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 7.1 7.5 4.0 2.4 69.9 66.7 0.7 3.0 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 4.7 4.4 3.6 1.9 63.5 64.5 0.5 1.9 4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 5.6 6.2 5.8 2.4 67.6 66.1 0.4 3.4 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------