***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 8.1 10.3 7.9 4.5 90.6 88.1 0.8 3.5 6.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 7.8 8.8 7.9 4.3 89.3 85.9 0.6 3.6 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 9.3 11.5 8.5 4.6 90.0 86.4 2.2 6.1 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 4.8 7.5 5.4 4.6 91.4 88.0 -2.6 1.8 3.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 8.3 10.3 6.7 4.5 88.8 87.4 2.1 4.8 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 8.0 8.6 4.9 3.9 83.2 82.8 2.8 4.3 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 7.4 8.6 7.6 4.2 89.3 86.0 0.7 3.5 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 1.4 2.3 5.2 3.5 80.9 79.8 -3.3 -1.4 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 9.3 11.3 7.5 4.4 88.1 86.6 3.0 6.5 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 7.8 8.8 6.4 4.1 84.7 83.0 2.9 4.8 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 8.6 10.3 7.1 4.4 85.8 85.0 2.4 4.9 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 9.0 10.1 5.8 3.8 82.7 82.2 3.2 6.1 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 8.1 8.9 6.3 3.7 80.3 80.0 2.8 5.0 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 10.0 11.5 8.4 4.6 85.5 83.6 2.2 5.4 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 9.1 10.5 7.1 4.6 92.5 89.4 1.3 4.1 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 8.8 10.1 6.2 4.1 84.1 83.3 3.1 5.5 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 7.6 8.1 7.5 4.3 89.8 86.2 0.0 3.3 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 5.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 84.4 82.1 1.7 2.9 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 8.9 10.1 8.0 4.4 88.9 85.5 0.8 4.1 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 5.1 6.1 3.9 3.2 79.0 77.4 -1.8 1.8 4.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 9.1 11.2 8.3 4.6 90.4 87.6 2.3 6.1 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 8.4 9.4 7.8 4.2 87.8 85.1 1.3 3.6 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 8.2 8.9 8.2 4.4 88.4 85.5 0.8 4.4 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 9.8 12.3 8.0 4.4 85.3 83.9 2.9 6.1 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 7.7 8.6 7.2 4.7 91.5 89.0 1.5 4.4 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 6.4 7.1 4.3 2.8 77.8 75.7 2.7 4.3 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 8.7 11.0 7.5 4.4 90.5 88.0 1.6 5.2 7.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 9.9 11.6 6.3 4.5 89.8 87.1 1.8 4.6 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 5.6 6.9 5.2 3.6 80.8 79.9 0.6 2.5 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 7.8 9.0 7.9 4.3 89.0 86.0 0.3 3.8 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------