***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.01.2018.-14.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 0.4 0.8 0.2 3.2 72.8 71.7 -3.2 -1.0 0.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 2.6 68.3 67.6 -4.3 -1.8 -0.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 1.2 1.8 0.0 2.9 71.8 70.2 -2.4 -0.2 1.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 -3.3 -3.0 -2.5 3.0 70.8 71.2 -7.8 -6.2 -3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 -0.8 -0.9 -1.7 3.3 73.1 71.9 -4.0 -2.7 -1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 -2.2 -1.8 -3.8 3.6 72.6 74.3 -7.2 -4.3 -2.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2.7 69.5 68.1 -3.6 -2.1 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -5.2 -5.4 -3.8 3.1 71.1 70.8 -9.3 -7.1 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 0.2 0.8 -1.7 3.3 74.8 72.8 -4.3 -1.7 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 -1.2 -0.4 -3.2 3.1 72.0 71.4 -4.8 -3.0 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 -1.0 -0.5 -2.2 3.5 75.7 73.1 -5.5 -3.0 -1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 -1.8 -1.8 -2.7 3.6 73.5 72.7 -7.3 -3.5 -2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 -1.6 -1.3 -2.9 3.6 73.9 72.9 -5.7 -3.5 -1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 0.3 0.1 -2.4 2.6 66.1 68.0 -2.8 -0.6 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 -0.5 0.4 -1.2 3.2 76.5 74.3 -5.5 -2.9 -0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 -0.8 -0.5 -2.7 3.6 73.6 73.2 -4.5 -2.6 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 -0.8 -0.9 -0.7 2.2 64.8 64.6 -3.9 -2.2 -0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 -2.7 -2.3 -3.8 2.9 69.5 69.5 -6.2 -4.7 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 2.6 68.8 68.1 -3.7 -2.0 -0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 -5.8 -6.0 -4.8 2.9 70.8 68.9 -10.8 -8.5 -7.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 -0.6 -0.2 -0.5 3.2 73.8 71.6 -4.4 -2.2 -0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 -1.0 -1.2 -0.8 2.1 62.9 64.3 -4.2 -2.0 -0.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 -0.4 -0.3 -0.7 2.7 70.1 69.2 -3.8 -1.7 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 -0.8 -0.3 -2.3 2.9 69.8 69.7 -3.7 -1.8 -0.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 -0.6 -0.2 -0.6 3.3 73.1 72.0 -4.2 -2.3 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 -1.8 -1.3 -3.0 3.5 73.4 72.5 -5.6 -3.9 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 3.4 72.8 71.6 -3.7 -2.3 -0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 -2.1 -1.6 -2.2 3.1 71.5 71.6 -6.4 -4.0 -1.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 -2.2 -1.6 -4.5 3.0 71.1 70.1 -8.4 -4.7 -1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 2.8 70.5 69.3 -3.1 -2.0 -0.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------