***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 1.3 1.8 2.0 4.6 89.7 88.0 -3.6 -2.0 0.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 0.6 1.3 1.6 4.3 88.6 86.4 -3.8 -2.5 -0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 2.2 2.9 1.9 4.3 86.7 86.2 -2.5 -0.5 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 -1.9 -0.3 -0.3 4.4 92.7 90.2 -8.1 -4.9 -3.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 -0.3 0.1 0.6 4.6 87.7 86.7 -3.3 -2.2 -0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 -1.2 -0.3 -2.5 4.0 82.4 82.0 -4.7 -2.6 -1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 0.7 1.4 1.8 4.5 89.0 87.2 -4.0 -2.2 -0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 -4.4 -3.9 -2.0 4.1 82.0 81.4 -10.2 -6.8 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 0.8 1.1 -0.1 4.0 82.5 82.5 -3.2 -1.5 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 -0.9 -0.7 -1.3 4.2 82.7 82.6 -3.9 -2.2 -1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 4.4 84.1 83.6 -3.2 -2.2 -0.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 -1.0 -0.7 -0.9 4.4 83.6 82.8 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 -0.6 -0.4 -1.2 4.2 81.6 81.4 -3.8 -2.0 -0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 0.5 1.2 -0.1 4.3 86.2 84.2 -3.5 -1.5 -0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 0.3 0.8 0.4 3.6 86.7 85.8 -3.3 -1.3 -0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 6 94 100 -0.1 0.5 -0.8 4.4 84.5 83.8 -3.1 -1.2 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 0.2 1.0 1.8 4.7 91.8 88.6 -4.3 -3.3 -0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 -2.3 -1.9 -1.5 4.4 84.7 84.2 -5.2 -3.5 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 5 95 100 0.3 1.0 1.3 4.1 86.4 85.0 -4.1 -1.8 0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 -3.2 -2.5 -2.7 4.4 82.9 82.7 -8.2 -6.9 -3.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 0.8 1.7 1.5 4.4 86.9 86.4 -3.2 -1.4 0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 0.3 1.0 1.8 4.5 89.1 87.8 -4.6 -2.7 -0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 0.0 0.4 0.8 3.8 83.5 82.6 -4.1 -1.9 -0.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 -0.5 0.0 -0.1 4.1 83.8 83.7 -3.9 -2.0 -1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 -0.1 0.7 1.6 4.7 88.9 88.1 -3.0 -1.9 -0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 -1.0 -0.8 -1.6 3.8 78.7 79.1 -4.7 -2.1 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 1.4 3.0 2.0 4.9 89.4 87.9 -2.6 -1.4 0.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 -0.5 -0.1 0.0 4.3 90.0 88.1 -3.9 -2.8 -0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 8 92 100 -2.1 -1.2 -2.6 4.4 83.0 82.4 -7.1 -3.3 -2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 1.1 1.9 1.7 4.3 87.3 86.0 -3.5 -1.9 0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------