***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 30.2 33.7 48.6 109.6 63.4 58.0 21.7 26.0 37.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 34.0 35.8 43.0 113.0 63.0 60.5 17.1 30.9 37.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 43.4 43.6 46.8 107.0 60.0 56.4 28.5 41.0 47.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 42.1 50.6 53.7 107.7 63.1 56.2 30.2 38.9 52.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 40.9 47.2 54.0 107.2 61.4 56.0 25.2 37.6 49.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 33.4 37.9 50.0 106.7 59.3 54.8 19.8 29.5 40.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 38.3 37.3 43.7 117.5 67.1 62.3 18.7 24.6 37.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 49.5 68.1 61.7 115.8 68.0 60.1 29.7 43.6 65.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 31.0 36.8 54.8 108.0 60.7 56.7 21.7 28.1 43.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 33.8 43.1 60.0 112.5 65.1 59.3 22.2 28.5 43.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 34.3 36.6 53.7 108.6 61.6 56.9 22.1 30.1 37.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 35.5 40.8 53.3 109.8 62.8 56.3 22.9 30.8 41.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 33.6 37.8 55.7 109.6 61.3 57.0 23.7 29.5 41.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 52.9 58.6 58.2 108.8 63.2 55.6 42.5 50.3 59.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 42.3 43.0 46.3 100.6 54.6 50.8 26.2 39.8 48.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 36.9 36.7 52.3 107.9 60.8 56.0 18.3 33.0 40.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 36.0 37.8 43.5 120.0 69.0 63.7 16.2 27.5 34.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 32.6 44.7 65.1 116.8 69.1 61.6 23.2 27.9 43.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 34.4 41.3 43.2 108.9 60.3 58.2 24.2 31.1 42.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 40.7 63.9 86.1 124.8 75.7 64.3 22.0 36.3 44.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 32.8 40.2 51.6 106.7 60.1 56.7 25.9 28.2 46.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 32.8 35.2 43.4 112.2 63.8 59.9 22.5 29.7 38.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 34.6 35.0 45.7 106.0 60.1 55.6 23.4 30.0 39.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 42.2 49.7 57.0 111.4 64.1 58.0 31.2 38.8 50.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 36.1 44.2 56.6 111.1 65.9 59.1 22.5 31.8 44.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 30.2 31.3 53.5 110.4 62.6 57.2 15.6 26.3 32.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 32.8 38.8 52.3 111.9 66.0 59.2 21.4 29.0 38.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 34.8 36.4 47.5 102.1 57.3 51.9 24.8 31.9 45.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 56.3 79.0 71.9 120.6 72.4 63.2 37.5 49.2 67.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 34.3 39.9 43.7 110.7 61.5 59.0 18.5 31.3 40.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------