***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 7.9 13.1 14.1 140.5 71.8 59.7 2.4 6.0 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.2 11.7 13.5 147.8 75.5 60.5 2.4 4.6 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 10.7 14.1 13.3 136.5 72.0 58.9 3.7 8.6 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.4 12.4 13.6 127.9 68.1 56.9 3.8 7.7 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.7 11.8 13.2 121.3 67.8 54.4 3.6 8.7 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.9 11.3 100.3 59.5 50.4 2.8 4.9 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.2 12.7 13.7 152.8 75.7 61.7 1.0 4.3 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.5 14.1 15.3 123.1 67.3 53.0 5.4 10.7 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.6 10.0 13.7 120.0 65.9 54.5 3.0 6.7 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.0 11.7 14.5 118.2 64.8 53.2 3.0 6.6 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.5 10.1 12.6 115.3 66.3 52.5 3.5 4.6 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.0 10.0 12.8 115.8 66.4 51.8 2.9 5.1 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.5 9.1 12.2 105.7 61.8 50.4 4.1 6.6 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.4 21.1 15.9 126.8 70.9 55.7 9.3 13.1 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.0 10.9 13.1 129.8 69.0 57.2 1.0 4.1 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.6 7.0 12.0 110.6 63.5 51.8 2.8 5.4 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.8 11.5 13.7 153.0 76.4 62.8 1.4 5.2 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.4 11.4 16.4 125.5 68.0 54.4 5.5 7.4 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 8.2 11.5 13.2 141.1 73.8 59.4 2.6 6.6 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.6 11.8 24.1 141.3 73.6 54.9 4.0 8.8 10.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.0 10.6 13.6 129.1 69.2 57.1 3.6 6.6 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 8.0 12.8 13.6 143.9 73.7 61.0 2.6 6.7 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.9 12.1 13.3 132.9 73.0 58.1 3.1 7.5 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.1 18.7 15.0 128.2 70.5 56.1 5.8 9.8 17.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 11.0 10.9 15.3 137.5 69.5 59.9 3.4 7.7 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.1 7.6 12.7 112.6 64.5 53.1 2.6 4.3 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.9 10.6 14.9 140.4 70.9 60.0 2.9 6.1 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 1.5 6.4 12.1 119.0 64.8 54.7 1.5 3.0 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.7 23.1 19.0 132.3 71.4 55.0 7.4 14.8 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.7 12.6 13.5 144.8 74.8 60.0 1.2 4.5 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------