***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2019.-20.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 4.0 5.0 14.2 120.3 65.7 58.3 0.0 2.6 5.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.0 10.7 13.4 134.5 73.2 61.0 0.3 2.8 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.7 9.9 14.3 123.2 69.1 58.9 0.4 4.8 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.0 9.6 13.6 103.9 61.5 52.8 2.9 5.6 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 6.4 8.5 13.6 101.9 61.0 52.4 0.6 4.0 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 1.6 5.0 11.3 94.4 55.9 49.4 0.5 3.3 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 6.8 7.6 13.2 134.9 72.2 61.2 0.4 2.2 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.6 14.9 103.8 60.2 53.5 2.3 7.8 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.2 7.8 15.2 110.4 64.0 56.4 0.7 3.6 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.7 8.0 15.4 108.2 62.5 55.2 1.2 3.5 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 4.3 5.5 13.0 101.8 60.2 52.8 0.5 2.6 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.1 12.8 99.7 57.5 52.4 1.0 4.3 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.3 7.4 12.7 99.5 57.4 51.8 0.4 3.7 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 6.6 10.4 17.1 121.9 69.9 57.0 3.1 4.9 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.8 7.6 13.0 104.4 61.5 52.0 0.9 5.9 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 3.8 4.7 12.4 100.2 57.3 52.0 0.5 2.3 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 5.7 7.3 13.2 139.4 75.1 63.2 0.4 2.0 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 1.9 9.0 17.2 115.3 67.5 56.9 2.4 3.6 7.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.8 12.6 13.7 132.2 72.0 60.4 0.5 4.0 8.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.6 8.3 22.7 114.3 67.7 56.0 1.6 5.5 7.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.3 9.6 14.7 112.2 65.0 56.1 1.0 3.8 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 9.3 9.5 13.5 135.2 73.9 62.5 0.3 2.8 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.0 7.1 14.6 129.5 70.5 59.3 0.2 3.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 6.7 11.5 16.0 118.4 69.5 57.0 1.4 3.8 9.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 4.8 8.5 15.0 110.6 62.1 55.2 0.3 2.7 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 3.3 2.8 12.8 100.3 59.1 51.2 0.8 1.8 5.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 5.1 4.6 14.5 116.7 64.6 57.1 0.3 3.2 5.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.6 12.2 100.3 59.1 51.1 0.9 4.7 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.0 13.5 19.0 116.6 68.9 56.3 4.1 7.6 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 3.9 10.8 13.6 130.4 70.6 59.9 0.4 1.2 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------