***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 3.3 4.4 12.1 108.9 64.1 56.4 0.4 2.1 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.1 5.9 10.5 114.1 64.5 56.4 0.9 2.5 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 5.7 6.6 10.7 97.4 60.9 53.0 1.6 3.7 6.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 5.5 6.7 13.0 98.0 59.3 53.4 0.7 4.5 9.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.4 11.4 88.8 53.7 48.9 2.3 5.1 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.9 3.3 10.8 92.2 51.2 49.2 1.2 3.2 4.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 3.1 6.0 11.3 125.0 68.1 59.2 0.8 1.5 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.9 14.1 108.8 62.9 54.3 3.9 7.9 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 4.3 4.1 12.6 97.3 58.0 52.9 0.9 2.9 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.4 12.1 92.6 56.7 50.5 1.5 5.2 9.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.2 12.1 96.0 58.3 51.2 0.6 5.3 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 4.7 5.9 13.3 108.8 61.7 54.8 0.9 2.8 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 1.9 4.5 11.9 95.2 53.9 50.3 0.6 3.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.2 7.7 12.7 95.7 59.0 52.9 2.4 5.4 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.4 6.9 11.5 92.9 61.5 53.3 0.4 2.8 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.2 6.4 12.5 102.2 59.6 53.0 0.8 3.7 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.5 8.9 11.6 130.6 71.2 60.6 1.2 3.8 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.0 6.2 13.6 99.9 60.2 53.5 1.9 4.6 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 4.6 5.1 10.2 105.0 62.9 54.4 1.2 3.4 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.4 11.9 20.5 119.9 67.4 56.4 1.5 3.8 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 4.2 4.8 12.5 100.5 60.1 54.8 2.0 2.8 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.7 6.8 10.8 115.4 65.8 56.6 1.4 4.1 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.7 4.5 10.5 96.2 61.3 52.7 1.7 3.8 4.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 6.0 7.4 12.3 95.2 59.9 53.0 2.5 4.4 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.3 13.1 101.0 58.9 54.0 1.2 3.5 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.8 4.3 11.2 90.7 51.9 47.9 1.0 4.2 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 4.2 5.6 12.8 110.2 62.2 56.7 0.4 3.1 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 3.8 2.7 11.4 93.0 58.7 51.1 0.3 2.1 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 8.7 10.3 15.7 106.4 62.6 54.3 3.1 6.1 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 3.6 4.9 10.5 109.9 63.0 55.2 1.2 2.5 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------