***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 8.8 6.0 8.2 71.9 51.6 47.4 2.0 5.9 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.4 5.6 5.6 57.5 46.6 42.8 3.0 7.2 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 12.8 10.2 8.5 74.1 53.0 47.8 5.9 9.5 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 7.4 14.5 13.5 104.6 63.6 52.4 5.9 11.9 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 14.8 15.6 15.8 118.5 67.9 59.8 8.8 13.2 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 9.4 13.6 16.6 139.1 73.0 63.4 5.6 8.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 9.4 7.6 5.6 59.2 48.5 43.7 4.1 7.9 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 18.1 24.5 17.4 126.4 70.7 61.7 9.6 16.1 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 11.4 12.1 13.3 105.4 62.8 56.3 7.7 10.1 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 12.8 15.4 18.1 129.7 71.9 64.1 4.8 11.9 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 10.6 12.9 16.1 121.2 68.8 59.9 6.9 9.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 11.5 14.2 14.4 115.5 66.4 57.1 5.4 9.9 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 13.5 17.8 18.9 135.0 73.9 63.7 7.4 12.4 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 17.9 18.3 12.5 91.3 57.7 51.2 8.0 16.5 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 3.0 12.1 8.8 78.6 54.8 39.4 2.2 9.3 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 10.9 14.9 15.4 118.2 66.5 58.6 5.7 9.3 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 7.0 4.7 5.1 56.2 48.9 42.7 4.3 4.8 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 45 55 100 14.2 15.8 17.8 126.8 71.3 64.0 7.4 10.6 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.2 8.3 6.1 59.5 46.3 42.8 3.4 9.5 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 13.1 19.5 18.8 121.4 70.0 61.6 5.0 10.3 17.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 12.4 12.7 10.8 88.1 57.2 51.4 6.3 9.5 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 8.4 5.0 5.5 55.4 46.7 42.1 2.7 6.1 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.3 8.5 7.2 66.4 47.9 43.9 3.4 9.3 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 17.6 17.7 13.8 105.5 63.6 56.9 7.9 16.8 17.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 12.6 13.4 13.2 99.6 62.5 55.9 4.8 9.8 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 10.2 15.2 16.8 138.7 72.1 62.9 4.6 7.8 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 9.8 8.7 10.1 83.2 56.8 51.3 4.2 6.4 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.9 13.9 11.7 98.6 60.9 47.9 3.0 10.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 44 56 100 21.6 25.0 18.2 126.8 71.2 63.7 8.8 15.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 9.2 6.0 6.1 59.9 46.4 43.5 3.7 6.8 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------