***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 4.9 5.0 4.6 1.5 68.9 64.2 2.2 3.4 4.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 4.6 4.6 4.8 1.6 69.5 64.3 2.0 3.3 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 5.6 6.1 5.2 1.6 70.5 64.8 3.1 4.5 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.1 65.7 60.1 -0.3 0.7 1.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 5.2 5.3 2.7 1.0 64.8 60.3 3.5 4.2 5.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.6 4.7 1.4 0.5 58.7 55.5 3.1 4.4 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 4.2 4.0 4.6 1.5 67.4 63.3 1.8 2.8 3.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.0 0.5 2.0 0.5 59.5 56.5 -1.2 -0.3 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 6.5 6.3 3.9 1.3 68.8 63.0 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 4.9 5.0 2.8 0.8 62.0 58.4 3.2 4.6 5.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.1 5.3 2.9 1.0 64.1 60.1 3.6 4.9 5.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.8 2.5 0.8 62.1 58.6 4.3 5.3 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 4.8 5.0 2.2 0.5 59.2 55.8 3.7 4.4 5.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 6.9 6.6 4.8 1.4 69.6 63.4 4.1 5.2 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 5.2 6.0 3.0 1.5 67.8 63.9 2.1 3.4 5.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.5 2.2 0.8 61.8 58.2 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 4.3 3.9 4.6 1.5 68.2 64.2 1.6 2.9 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 2.9 3.0 2.8 0.7 62.1 57.9 2.0 2.5 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 5.0 5.2 5.0 1.7 71.2 65.1 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 1.9 1.8 0.8 0.2 53.3 52.6 1.1 1.4 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 5.9 5.9 4.6 1.4 69.0 63.6 3.2 4.8 5.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 4.9 5.4 4.9 1.6 69.5 65.0 2.3 3.5 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 4.8 5.4 5.4 1.7 73.5 66.0 2.4 3.5 4.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 7.1 6.4 4.4 1.2 67.5 62.0 3.8 5.5 6.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 3.7 4.7 3.0 1.1 64.3 60.9 2.2 3.4 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 4.8 4.9 1.4 0.2 55.6 53.4 3.5 4.7 5.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 5.2 5.7 4.0 1.2 64.8 62.0 2.6 3.8 5.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 6.3 6.2 2.2 1.2 66.0 61.3 2.9 4.3 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.9 2.7 2.1 0.5 59.4 56.1 1.8 2.4 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 4.6 4.3 4.7 1.6 69.3 64.1 1.9 3.2 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------