***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 6.6 6.9 5.4 2.1 69.6 63.9 0.3 3.3 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 5.6 4.4 5.2 2.0 62.6 63.3 0.3 2.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 7.3 7.6 6.0 2.3 67.6 64.8 1.0 4.1 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 2.8 3.1 2.7 2.2 69.3 64.3 -3.3 -0.8 2.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 7.7 7.6 4.0 2.2 69.5 64.7 2.2 5.0 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 6.1 6.2 3.2 2.0 67.6 63.4 2.7 3.4 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 5.1 4.8 5.0 1.8 63.9 62.7 0.1 2.0 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 1.1 1.2 3.5 1.9 68.3 63.4 -2.6 -0.4 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 8.2 8.8 4.9 2.3 69.4 64.5 2.2 5.4 7.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 7.2 7.2 4.2 2.1 68.3 63.6 1.6 4.8 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 7.9 8.0 4.0 2.2 70.0 64.6 1.8 5.3 7.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 8.0 7.7 3.9 2.0 70.0 64.3 1.9 5.0 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 7.2 6.8 3.2 1.7 65.9 62.6 1.8 4.7 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 7.6 7.6 5.5 2.2 66.0 63.5 1.5 3.9 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 5.7 5.6 3.4 2.2 67.2 63.9 0.5 2.9 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 8.3 8.5 3.6 2.1 68.7 64.1 2.6 5.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 4.9 3.6 5.1 1.8 61.4 62.5 0.5 2.0 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 4.8 4.8 4.5 2.0 66.5 63.2 1.3 3.2 4.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 6.1 5.7 5.6 2.1 62.8 64.0 0.2 2.3 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 4.8 4.1 2.2 1.4 62.3 60.8 -1.1 2.3 4.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 7.5 8.1 5.4 2.3 69.6 64.3 1.7 4.9 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 5.5 4.5 5.3 1.9 62.0 63.3 0.8 2.2 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 5.9 5.6 6.1 2.3 65.0 64.5 0.3 2.8 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 7.7 7.4 5.4 2.2 66.7 64.0 1.1 4.2 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 5.9 4.9 3.7 1.9 68.7 63.2 1.1 3.8 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 5.8 5.8 2.8 1.5 66.3 62.3 2.4 4.5 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 7.4 7.2 4.7 1.9 68.4 63.2 1.1 4.5 6.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 7.0 6.9 3.2 2.4 70.2 64.6 2.0 4.8 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 5.3 4.8 3.7 1.7 64.9 62.1 -0.4 2.2 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 5.6 5.5 5.2 2.0 65.2 63.8 0.0 2.2 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------