***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2019.-20.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 5.4 4.6 5.4 2.3 67.9 65.4 2.1 3.6 4.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 5.4 4.6 5.3 2.4 68.9 65.2 1.8 3.5 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 6.4 5.9 5.9 2.4 68.2 65.3 2.5 4.4 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 2.6 2.2 2.4 2.0 66.7 64.0 -2.8 0.4 1.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 6.0 5.8 3.6 2.1 67.4 64.3 2.9 3.9 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 5.7 5.3 3.0 2.0 66.4 63.8 2.4 4.4 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 5.1 4.3 5.3 2.2 68.3 64.7 1.6 3.4 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 1.8 2.0 3.3 1.9 67.7 63.4 -2.5 -0.7 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 5.9 7.8 4.6 2.2 68.6 64.2 3.1 5.2 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 6.5 5.8 4.0 2.0 68.0 63.5 2.2 4.1 5.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 6.7 6.1 3.6 2.0 67.0 64.4 2.7 3.8 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 7.5 6.7 3.6 2.0 67.7 64.6 2.6 4.4 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 6.8 4.8 3.1 1.9 65.7 64.2 2.0 3.5 4.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 5.2 7.2 5.3 2.3 66.8 63.2 2.8 4.4 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 5.9 5.9 3.2 2.2 66.2 64.7 1.8 4.5 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 7.0 5.6 3.3 2.0 66.0 64.3 3.2 4.5 5.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 4.9 4.8 5.3 2.2 67.4 64.3 1.5 3.5 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 2.8 4.3 4.3 2.1 67.8 63.4 1.3 2.2 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 5.8 5.5 5.6 2.4 68.9 65.4 1.5 3.8 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 4.1 3.3 2.3 1.7 64.9 61.9 -0.2 1.2 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 5.9 6.7 5.2 2.3 68.8 64.7 2.8 4.1 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 4.3 5.4 5.4 2.2 66.5 64.3 1.7 3.7 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 4.0 4.6 6.0 2.4 68.4 65.2 1.8 3.4 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 5.8 7.3 5.2 2.2 68.5 63.7 2.6 5.2 7.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 4.8 5.0 3.7 2.1 66.9 64.0 2.1 2.9 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 6.1 5.8 2.9 1.8 66.6 64.6 2.4 3.4 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 5.7 5.4 4.8 2.2 67.5 64.8 2.3 3.3 4.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 6.4 6.5 2.9 2.2 66.2 64.5 2.3 4.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 4.6 3.9 3.6 1.9 66.7 63.0 0.8 2.6 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 5.0 4.7 5.3 2.4 68.5 65.3 1.6 3.5 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------