***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 5.8 7.2 5.2 2.0 66.9 61.8 1.6 4.5 7.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.0 6.5 5.6 2.3 68.1 63.6 0.9 4.0 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.7 8.5 5.9 2.2 68.3 63.0 1.9 5.8 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 2.4 3.3 1.8 1.5 62.8 57.6 -2.0 1.4 3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.4 6.1 3.1 1.3 61.2 57.6 1.9 4.4 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.4 1.9 1.1 56.8 56.8 1.0 3.6 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.0 6.6 5.2 2.2 66.5 62.9 0.5 3.2 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 1.6 1.7 2.7 1.1 57.5 57.4 -1.0 1.3 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.9 9.1 4.4 1.7 65.0 60.4 2.0 6.0 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.7 3.5 1.4 60.1 58.4 1.2 4.7 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.3 3.5 1.4 61.5 58.3 1.7 4.6 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.5 3.0 1.2 58.7 57.8 2.2 5.1 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.5 2.9 1.0 56.3 55.6 2.1 4.4 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 9.7 9.6 5.9 2.3 67.6 63.7 1.6 6.1 9.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 4.3 6.4 3.3 1.9 65.7 60.5 0.8 3.3 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.8 2.7 1.2 58.4 56.8 2.4 5.2 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.1 6.0 5.4 2.3 67.8 63.6 0.3 3.0 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 2.9 3.9 3.7 1.5 59.6 59.0 0.8 2.0 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 5.6 7.2 5.8 2.4 68.6 64.0 0.7 4.6 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.7 2.3 1.9 1.0 54.5 56.8 -0.7 2.0 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.0 8.3 5.2 1.9 67.1 61.6 2.0 5.0 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.5 6.6 5.7 2.4 68.5 64.3 0.7 3.3 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 6.6 7.1 6.1 2.5 69.3 64.6 0.9 4.1 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 7.6 10.2 5.3 1.9 65.4 61.5 2.0 6.7 10.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.8 5.9 3.6 1.6 63.8 58.9 1.7 3.7 6.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.3 1.8 0.6 53.2 54.4 1.8 4.3 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.4 7.7 4.5 1.7 63.9 60.0 2.0 4.3 7.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.7 7.7 2.6 1.7 64.3 58.8 1.9 3.0 8.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.6 5.0 3.0 1.3 58.2 58.2 0.1 2.5 6.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.6 7.3 5.5 2.2 67.1 62.9 0.8 3.7 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------