***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 4.2 2.2 2.6 -0.4 41.4 42.9 0.4 3.5 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 4.6 2.8 3.0 -0.2 43.5 45.2 0.6 4.1 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 6.5 3.6 2.9 -0.7 40.7 41.7 1.7 5.8 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -2.0 -1.9 -1.1 -1.5 34.1 35.7 -2.0 1.1 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 1.4 1.7 0.1 -1.6 31.9 34.0 1.8 4.8 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 81 19 0 100 0.3 0.9 -2.7 -3.0 22.3 24.9 2.2 4.7 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 3.9 2.9 2.7 -0.2 41.7 44.9 0.1 3.4 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 -3.6 -3.9 -1.5 -2.7 23.4 26.6 -2.6 -1.4 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.0 3.4 1.7 -1.0 35.9 38.7 2.6 5.9 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 1.2 2.0 -0.4 -2.3 26.7 30.2 2.6 5.2 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 1.5 2.5 0.5 -1.7 32.2 33.7 2.5 4.7 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 0.5 1.8 -0.6 -2.2 27.2 29.6 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 0.8 1.7 -0.5 -2.6 25.1 27.6 2.1 5.1 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 6.2 3.5 2.4 -1.1 37.2 39.5 2.8 5.0 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 4.7 3.2 2.1 -0.1 46.2 48.0 1.4 4.0 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 1.0 2.6 -0.7 -2.2 28.1 30.2 2.9 5.4 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 3.8 2.7 2.8 -0.1 45.1 46.1 0.4 3.4 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 0.1 0.4 -1.0 -2.7 25.0 27.9 1.3 2.9 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 4.6 3.0 3.1 -0.2 43.7 45.0 0.8 4.1 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 -2.8 -3.2 -3.2 -3.5 17.8 22.1 -1.0 1.9 4.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 1.7 2.9 2.5 -0.9 38.4 39.4 2.1 5.1 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 4.3 2.9 3.1 0.0 46.3 46.7 1.0 3.7 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 4.5 3.4 3.2 -0.3 43.8 44.8 1.1 3.9 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 2.7 3.7 1.7 -1.6 33.6 35.7 3.6 6.1 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.5 1.8 1.1 -1.2 37.0 37.5 1.1 3.7 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 81 19 0 100 1.1 1.6 -2.1 -2.9 20.7 24.0 2.3 4.2 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 5.4 3.0 1.8 -0.9 38.2 39.2 1.9 4.6 7.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.2 2.4 0.0 -1.3 36.2 38.1 1.2 5.0 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 -0.7 -0.7 -1.8 -2.9 22.3 25.7 0.4 2.3 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 4.6 2.6 2.9 -0.3 42.4 44.1 0.1 4.1 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------