***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 -1.5 -1.6 -1.4 1.7 64.9 65.5 -3.5 -2.6 -1.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 -1.9 -2.1 -1.3 1.9 68.3 67.1 -3.8 -2.8 -2.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 -0.2 -0.1 -1.3 1.7 67.5 66.2 -2.1 -0.9 -0.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 -5.5 -5.3 -4.8 1.1 59.3 59.8 -6.9 -5.7 -5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 -2.9 -2.6 -4.0 1.2 60.5 61.2 -3.9 -3.2 -2.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 -3.6 -3.6 -6.6 0.8 59.9 58.8 -4.7 -3.9 -3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 -2.0 -1.9 -1.3 1.8 65.7 66.4 -3.5 -2.6 -1.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 -7.2 -6.8 -5.9 1.0 62.5 60.7 -8.0 -7.5 -6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 -1.5 -1.5 -3.3 1.6 67.4 66.1 -3.3 -2.3 -1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 -2.6 -2.6 -5.1 1.2 63.4 62.0 -3.7 -2.9 -2.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 -2.9 -2.7 -4.6 1.4 62.8 62.8 -3.9 -3.2 -2.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 -3.7 -3.3 -5.3 1.2 63.3 61.8 -4.5 -3.9 -3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 -3.1 -3.1 -5.5 1.1 62.5 61.3 -4.5 -3.4 -2.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 -1.2 -1.3 -3.1 1.9 72.3 68.4 -3.2 -1.9 -1.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 -2.7 -1.7 -3.1 1.5 62.0 63.9 -4.5 -3.2 -1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 -2.3 -1.9 -5.4 1.1 60.3 60.4 -3.1 -2.5 -1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 -2.4 -2.3 -1.3 1.9 68.8 66.8 -3.9 -2.7 -2.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 -4.3 -4.4 -5.5 1.2 64.7 62.4 -6.1 -4.6 -4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 -1.9 -1.8 -1.4 1.8 68.6 67.3 -3.8 -2.6 -1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 -7.6 -7.3 -6.8 0.9 61.8 60.0 -9.1 -8.0 -6.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 -1.8 -1.6 -2.1 1.7 67.6 66.1 -3.7 -2.9 -1.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 -2.3 -2.2 -1.3 2.0 69.7 67.7 -4.0 -3.1 -2.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 -2.0 -2.0 -1.6 1.8 69.6 67.5 -3.7 -2.7 -2.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 -2.3 -2.2 -3.5 1.6 68.4 65.8 -3.8 -2.7 -2.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 -2.1 -2.1 -2.9 1.3 62.3 61.4 -3.9 -2.4 -1.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 87 13 100 -3.6 -2.9 -6.1 0.6 55.6 55.7 -4.4 -3.9 -2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 -1.5 -1.5 -1.9 1.6 64.1 63.6 -3.9 -2.1 -1.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 -3.7 -3.4 -4.4 1.3 60.9 61.4 -5.1 -4.2 -2.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 -4.7 -4.4 -6.2 1.1 64.4 61.6 -5.7 -5.0 -4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 -1.6 -1.7 -1.3 1.8 67.9 66.6 -3.5 -2.7 -1.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------