***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 -0.4 -1.4 -1.5 2.0 62.3 64.1 -3.9 -1.7 -1.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 -0.7 -1.5 -1.6 1.9 61.4 63.9 -4.4 -2.1 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 0.8 0.4 -1.5 1.9 59.6 64.6 -2.7 -0.9 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 -4.2 -4.7 -4.9 1.8 59.7 62.4 -8.9 -5.4 -4.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 -1.3 -1.8 -4.3 1.9 60.6 63.3 -3.4 -2.2 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 -2.3 -2.7 -6.1 1.8 62.6 62.2 -4.2 -3.3 -2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 -0.7 -1.2 -1.5 1.9 60.3 63.6 -4.3 -1.8 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 -5.6 -6.2 -5.8 1.7 60.9 61.9 -9.5 -6.7 -5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 -0.4 -0.9 -3.8 1.8 59.7 63.2 -2.8 -2.0 -0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 -1.2 -2.1 -5.1 1.7 60.9 62.1 -4.0 -2.5 -1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 -1.1 -1.9 -5.0 1.9 61.2 63.0 -3.4 -2.4 -1.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 -1.1 -2.3 -5.4 2.0 61.6 63.1 -4.8 -2.8 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 -5.1 -1.9 -5.5 1.9 64.2 62.7 -3.2 -2.6 -1.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 -0.5 -0.8 -3.5 2.0 62.5 63.8 -3.2 -1.1 -0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 -1.5 -2.1 -4.0 1.6 56.6 61.3 -4.6 -3.8 -0.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 -0.7 -1.1 -5.4 2.0 63.2 62.8 -2.8 -1.7 -1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 -1.1 -1.9 -1.5 1.8 59.1 62.7 -3.6 -2.5 -1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 -3.6 -3.3 -5.6 1.8 60.8 62.4 -4.8 -3.8 -3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 -0.4 -1.2 -1.6 1.9 61.9 64.1 -4.5 -1.6 -1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -6.9 -6.6 -6.4 1.6 59.9 60.6 -9.0 -7.7 -5.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 -0.6 -1.7 -2.5 1.8 59.3 63.3 -3.2 -2.3 -1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 -1.0 -1.5 -1.7 1.8 61.9 63.0 -4.5 -2.4 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 -1.2 -1.5 -1.8 1.9 61.3 64.2 -4.0 -2.3 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 -1.3 -1.8 -4.0 1.9 58.9 63.4 -4.1 -2.4 -1.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 -1.2 -1.6 -3.1 1.8 60.4 63.0 -3.6 -2.2 -1.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 -2.2 -1.9 -5.8 1.7 60.8 60.7 -3.6 -2.7 -1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 0.0 -0.6 -1.9 2.0 61.9 64.0 -3.7 -1.8 -0.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 -1.9 -2.9 -4.7 1.8 59.3 62.4 -5.7 -3.5 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 -3.2 -3.1 -5.8 1.8 61.2 62.1 -7.0 -4.5 -3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 -0.3 -1.2 -1.5 2.0 62.0 64.5 -4.1 -2.1 -1.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------